Posted on 02/11/2020 5:21:10 AM PST by TigerClaws
The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the worlds population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kongs leading public health epidemiologist.
His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the tip of the iceberg.
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an attack rate of 60-80%.
Sixty per cent of the worlds population is an awfully big number, Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.
Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.
He will tell the WHO meeting that the main issue is the scale of the growing worldwide epidemic and the second priority is to find out whether the drastic measures taken by China to prevent the spread have worked because if so, other countries should think about adopting them.
The Geneva meeting brings together more than 400 researchers and national authorities, including some participating by video conference from mainland China and Taiwan. With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world, the WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in his opening remarks. To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said.
(Excerpt) Read more at theguardian.com ...
I used to work on contaminated sites. A pain in the butt to get in and out of them. Upon leaving you would have several stations to go through. At real bad sites somebody was at each station to help you. Clean the boots. Clean the suit. Help take the boots off. Help take the suit off. Etc.
There was a video of somebody in China going through a similar procedure to get back into their apartment building. But the guys monitoring him only had him change out his surgeon’s mask and rub his hands quickly with sanitizer.
In between the ineffective hand sanitizing he used a common pen sitting on the table to sign in.
It is REALLY difficult and time-consuming to make sure you are decontaminated. Hence the disposable Tyvek suits. At $15 each they are disposable when charging $150 an hour at a haz-waste site. Going to the grocery store - not so much.
“Another article designed to scare people.”
I would agree that every single time there is a break-out of some unusual disease, people go around with their hair on fire. This time is no exception. HOWEVER, being completely complacent about this is not “the Way.” Being dismissive of the entirety of this article because you don’t agree with parts of it does a disservice to you and to anyone who reads and is influenced by your comments. Frankly, if everyone simply washed their hands with soap or alcohol a few more times per day, this thing would get stopped in its tracks in a couple of weeks - but complacency works against that.
Agreed. What I’ve been saying is that while it makes no sense to go around with one’s hair on fire about this, dismissive complacency (i.e. Normalcy Bias) is rather foolish (and dangerous).
“It spreads through the respiratory route, and the fatality rate is low enough for victims to infect others before the virus runs its course. This was the case with the 1917-1919 influenza that swept around the world and killed millions.”
Isn’t Communism grand? Bernie probably has good things to say about their ‘transportation system’, like he did about the USSR.
My response to people like this is always, “you first.” Usually, that shuts up their pie hole.
Wow, what comforting photos...right out of a post-apocalyptic thriller.
I’m not sure how much good, if any, that that stuff does from a medical POV, but it sure puts on a good show about how the “enlightened leaders” are “protecting us.” I think that the latter is the point of the exercise.
If that is a bleach solution, it is only going to add to their problems. As it is, the average Chinese citizen has two strikes against their pulmonary health: the smoke in far greater percentages than those in the West, and many of them live in cities that are more polluted than ANY Western city has EVER been. Now you’re going to have them breathing in a bleach mixture? It ***might*** kill some of the corona virus on the ground or streets, and maybe a bit elsewhere, but this is leaving them MORE vulnerable to a deadly result if they get pneumonia (now, from corona virus, or later from anything else).
“My concern is healthcare workers here being exposed before they even realize what they are dealing with. That could overwhelm the system pretty quickly. Hopefully theres a lot of informing and preparing going on.”
Wow, aren’t you eloquent? You can bore us to death with your Normalcy Bias, and you may even be correct about this particular virus at this particular time - but someday that attitude is going to really bite you (and maybe your loved ones) in the ass. Use the wetware a bit more, that’s all that I’m saying.
Running around with hair on fire = no use of wetware = bad.
Being complacent in the face of a communicable and potentially lethal disease = no use of wetware = bad.
There IS a balanced, logical and medically-sound approach to this thing (and similar ones). Playing a human ostrich doesn’t make the grade.
“Plus, the incubation period up to 24 days. Theyve already had a guy released from quarantine only to find out he was infected.”
Bottom line: we simply don’t know THAT much about this disease, and that mitigates toward being *more* cautious rather than less so (and CERTAINLY against the complacency demonstrated by several on this and other threads).
“Care should be taken to avoid health foods that can artificially enhance the immune system”
Thoughts?
Best line of the thread.
Another article designed to scare people.
Another article designed to scare people.
I’ve read stuff either way for elderberry.
Also look up ketosis and cytokine storm. Seems that some ketones are protective but only if you’re actively IN ketosis. Taking the ‘ketones’ in the bottle didn’t work.
“Coronavirus ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked’”
gee, IF it’s unchecked, then 100% of the population would get it ... article is just typical bullshit from the ultra-leftist Manchester Guardian ...
“In between the ineffective hand sanitizing he used a common pen sitting on the table to sign in.”
You’re right, staying decontaminated is very difficult. Anyone reading this could understand that simply by taking note of each step that they take when washing their hands after going to the restroom: touching the doorknob of the “throne room;” touching the handles of the hot and/or cold water faucets; touching the soap and putting it back in the dish or on the edge of the sink; shaking off your hands into the sink (where you also brush your teeth); drying off your hands on a towel that you’ve used before (and maybe others, too), and that you’ll likely use again (and maybe others, too). And that’s TRYING to be clean.
No one lives in a sterile bubble, which suggests to me that a LOT more people are going to get infected - including people that wash their hands a lot and take a bunch of vitamins to keep their immune systems functioning as close to design parameters as possible.
It's all about managing risk, and hopefully in a way that reduces risk.
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
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