[fuente]

In the end, it will have a kill rate of 10%-20%. Deaths lag infections. It takes 10-14days between infection and death. Look at the deaths today, verses the infections 10-140days ago. That ratio is between 10%-20%. That is the real story.

[calenel]

Watch out! Some of the folks on here will condemn you for “spreading fear” while they spread ignorance.

I agree that the final tally will be much higher than the current 2%. The key is containment. But China is lost in that regard, there will be a lot of dead.

[SIDENET]

In the end, it will have a kill rate of 10%-20%. Deaths lag infections. It takes 10-14days between infection and death. Look at the deaths today, verses the infections 10-140days ago. That ratio is between 10%-20%. That is the real story.

I keep seeing that 25% of people who catch this will require hospitalization and intensive treatment, and this is going off of Chicom numbers. No country has the hospital capacity to deal with pandemic numbers. Correct me if I'm wrong, but US hospitals are usually swamped this time of the year just with seasonal flu and normal injuries and illnesses.

It seems to me that this virus is quite capable of producing a fatality rate in the 25% range if not greater.

I sure hope I'm wrong.

[Svartalfiar]

In the end, it will have a kill rate of 10%-20%. Deaths lag infections. It takes 10-14days between infection and death. Look at the deaths today, verses the infections 10-140days ago. That ratio is between 10%-20%. That is the real story.

The estimate as of yesterday (when I had solid-ish numbers) gave us two rates.

The official Chinese numbers were something like 360 deaths to 1100 recoveries, a 29% mortality rate.
The leaked numbers from tencent were ~25M deaths to 600 recoveries, giving a 98.8% mortality rate.

Either of which is, of course, extremely high.