[DannyTN]

I suspect the Coronavirus fatality rate is a lot higher than the 2% they are telling us. Over 10% of the 99 patients died. and 57 of the 99 are still in the hospital as of 1/30.

Only 2% of the confirmed cases have died, but only 3% have recovered, while 13% are in critical condition. THe 3% might be low. Because I’ve only recently started seaing reports on it. So it may be incomplete. And there may be a lot of people who were sent on, that they’ve not followed up on.

If half (pure guess) of the people who are critical die, the fatality rate shoots up to 8.5%.

[palmer]

We don't know how many untracked cases there are in China. If there aren't very many, i.e. the 17k number is accurate, then the virulence is low, doesn't spread easily. We are started to track that outside of China, so we'll get a better idea soon.

But if the virulency is high, then there are a lot more untracked cases and a lot lower mortality. That's because the virus has been spreading for 8 weeks. 8 weeks would allow a million cases of flu.