Posted on 01/31/2020 8:50:37 PM PST by catnipman
I sure hope I’m wrong.
That number came from the nurse. She said that was for the province (60 million people). The spread of this virus, after about 8 weeks, seems minimal, except for the possibility of a lot more unreported cases with mild symptoms.
Sure. But that is comparing fatalities which may be rapid to people who have a couple of weeks at the very least to earn the recovery badge. It doesn't count any recoveries that are not in a hospital.
Quite often you preface that claim with "cohorts". I suggest you continue to do that, and explain what cohorts means.
Nah, based on what little we’ve even seen coming out of China, if that metaphor works, the dog was roadkill a long time ago.
You could be right. But you have to be accurate. The cohort mortality rate is 50%, but that's an incredily poor selection process for a statistic.
I am aware of that. However, the best way to store a bio-weapon is to not store it at all, but to keep it just short of weaponized. If you’ve got it to the point of weaponizing, and know what needs to be spliced in, then the spicing can be simple. It may be one or two steps away from creation, but then you do not have to worry about it escaping into the wild. It takes a conscious effort to make it weaponized for use, but that may only take minutes or hours. However, until those steps are taken, it’s mostly innocuous.
I too have had pneumonia, so bad I cracked a rib coughing. It started the same way, with what seemed to be a viral cold, and was. A secondary opportunistic bacteriological infection got started and almost killed me. They can hit very quickly. That means nothing to what we are talking about here. I was hale and healthy in my 40s when it did that and wound up in the hospital on O2 and it required IV antibiotics to get rid of the pneumonia. . . which did not touch the cold virus. The powerful antibiotics knocked out the bacteria very quickly, but I still had the cold. LOL!
a very interesting post with more information about the likelihood coronavirus is “engineered”:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3812704/posts?page=1#59
See what I posted above about the state of professional “peer-reviewed papers”. It’s already pretty dismal. The publish-or-perish requirement in modern academe is resulting in a large amount of twaddle and outright fraud masquerading as scholarship and research.
I didnt see which report they cited, so, I posted the one I knew of saying the HIV virus is seen in 3 strands in the virus in the receptor
If scientists fight over things, that is good, I dont want one to win and find out he/she is wrong
meat doesn’t magically come in Styrofoam trays wrapped in Saran wrap...
Good point. Fear of contagion does have a quelling effect on large crowds.
Do read the NEJM paper.
had this guy not been able to get medical care and O2 plus the antiviral, he might have become a statistic.
I have it on good authority that nully is wrong.
Everyone knows chickens come shrinkwrapped!
A weaponized virus must have a high percentage fatality rate
Sword, there are rumors that the Chinese are doing what they did in ‘89 by cremating the bodies and, presumably, flushing the ashes down the sewers to hide the true numbers from their public for obvious reasons.
Understand, that like the Harvard chem department, many of ‘our’ scientists are in the employ of the CCP.
And 50 cent army is swarming on this one.
ROTFLMAO! Sounds about right.
By specifying the cohort is ICU patients with resolved cases, I acknowledge we can't know how many out 'in the wild' are sick, how many recovered and how many died in their own beds.
Indeed we can't even say how many of the ones who died of 2019-nCoV were written of as death from a myriad of other causes pneumonia, heart attack, food poisoning...
NOBODY knows how many of those currently sick will recover or die. NOBODY.
The probably Pollyanna prediction of 2.2% sets a lower limit to the fatality rate.
My probably paranoid prediction sets an upper limit of ≈50%
Actual will be somewhere between those two.
My guess is most people who get sick will recover. But...
I'm told a society can't cohere at a 30% loss of life. That's too close to half way between 50% and 2.2% for my comfort.
Thanks for the link to the paper on the initial novel Coronavirus patient in the USA. Quite interesting. I’ll pass it on to my RN lady. . . She will be fascinated too.
I would not want to have to fight it off at age 71.
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