Posted on 01/31/2020 4:19:33 PM PST by fwdude
It is not only that MANY blacks are pro 2nd amendment and see this being stripped away!! Kyane has a HUGE impact AND we have many black republicans that are pounding the pavement, Diamond and Silk also started a wave and they are fighting HARD!!! #walkaway making HUGE in roads too!!!
If it is 20% it is GAME OVER !!!!
Stop, just stop.. a sample size of a few tens of people has a huge margin of error.. either get better educated in math, statistics and probabilities or stop making ludicrous claims.
Trump is not going to get 40% of the black vote, he’s not going to get 30% or even 20%.
Trump will likely outperform his 2016 numbers of 8% but he is not going to get 20% support among voting blacks. Let alone 40%.
Highest support a GOP has gotten in the last 50 years was Reagan in 1980, who got I believe 14%.. yet in his 84 re-election when the nation was doing far far better his support among blacks dropped significantly.
If Trump were getting 20% support, let alone 40% support among AA you wouldn’t need a pill to see it it would be obvious on that ground and it’s not.
Trump will likely improve from 2016 but his numbers will likely be right in historical ranges.. 10-12%. Maybe on the outside he might put it up to a a little beyond Reagan’s 1980.. but even that would be an earthquake politically.. that kind of radical shift would be obvious on the ground.
When you subset of blacks being polled like Rasmussen are a few dozen the margin of error is huge.
Trump has always had much stronger support with black men than black women, but then he also has much stronger support with white men than white women.
I have my own theories as to why.
Lavell Crawford agrees. The linked video is pretty raw, but some black men see Trump as blacker than Obama.
Lavell Crawford - Warning: Language
On the other hand, black women are solidly anti-Trump, and he will be lucky to get 5% of their vote. And they vote at twice the rate of black men. Trump will not get over 15% of the black vote in 2020. He got 8% in 2016, and 29% of latinos. If he increases those numbers by 5%, it's going to be an epic night.
My comment was specific to black women. I think I am correct for the most part.
Men want a daddy government, women want a mommy government.
It is just that simple.
Yup. Its part of their DNA. Hate whitey and vote dummycrat.
-—Trump has always had much stronger support with black men than black women, but then he also has much stronger support with white men than white women.
I have my own theories as to why.——
But that’s been true of the GOP for decades. It’s not just Trump. The Lib media talked for years about the “gender gap” and how the GOP needed to do more to appeal to women.
What they purposely ignored was the fact that Democrats always had a gender gap problem with men. That’s never gone away, really.
If black men vote higher than normal for Trump this time then yes, that would be new. But men in general have skewed Republican for decades.
You can private mail me the reason. I’m dying to know now :)
I can hear the nails being pounded into the rats coffins. Their racist division strategy is failing.
Going from 8% to 12% coupled with a retarded turnout will have a profound effect in critical swing States: Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina. Florida .....any State where Trumps margin of victory was razor thin in 2016.
Blacks probably not that taken by Trump getting railroaded by white prosecutors. They’ve seen that movie before.
That’s gotta be Alveda King in those 2 pix. I’m just surprised she’s BEHIND the barricades instead of in front.
If he got just 20% of black votes that’s nearly 3% of the national vote
In this age that would matter
Or if his popularity depresses black democrat voting turnout
Which is likely considering none of the Dems are attractive
I want to believe this, but on election night 90+% of blacks will vote for the D candidate
Which is still huge. Big enough to carry every state he carried in '16...and possibly pick up one or two others.
Excellent.
I had forecasted a while back that we could hit 50% by Election day. Looks like we are well on our way.
Actually I think the numbers for white women (and men) are statistically tied. It’s not as big a thing to be a woman as FRs like to make it out to be.
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