[Starboard]

but standing aside as future 9/11’s are plotted in Afghanistan is not an option either.

************

So we’re there forever?

[Zhang Fei]

[So we’re there forever?]

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Afghanistan is a special case. Leaving aside that it was a godforsaken wasteland even before we showed up, it had been at war for 20 years prior to 9/11, thanks to the Russians. We stood up a brand new government. It takes a while for everyone to settle into their roles (i.e. be resigned to the fact that not everyone’s going to be top dog), and that’s without a major guerrilla war going on. Short of genocide, I expect fairly low-level guerrilla war to go on for decades. But the government will slowly get its act together and we will eventually settle into perhaps an annual stipend of a few hundred million dollars, much like we disburse to Pakistan.

The Afghan government isn’t uniquely incompetent. The problem is that unlike say, the Colombian government, which has fought a guerrilla insurgency for 50 years, but has been fairly stable in recent decades, the Afghan regime is brand spanking new as governments go. So the funding will taper down as the government gets its act together to the extent one can in that region of the world.

If you’re interested, the numbers for spending in Afghanistan and Iraq are on page 16 of this Congressional Budget Office document:

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2018-10/54219-oco_spending.pdf