[And considering Wuhan is the epicenter, and assume most cases would be there, even at 3.5 million cases (allowing for 1 million to have spread outside the city) , that would be 1/3 of the population of Wuhan sick. And that would have been in the past, whenever this video was made.
Ridiculous.]
And while the number seems absurd, it also seems absurd that China would shut down 5% of its economy - the quarantined area which is roughly the size of Maryland - to combat *any* bug. And then there are measures being taken outside of Wuhan. The Chinese New Year is basically China’s holiday shopping season - the equivalent of the Thanksgiving to Christmas retail period kicked off by Black Friday. That shopping season is basically shut down in China, with government exhortations to the entire population to stay home and avoid public places.
“I agree it seems absurd. But in China, people who disseminate information like this put themselves in great personal jeopardy, up to and including death, because the charge is essentially espionage, for disclosure of state secrets, the penalty for which is death. So assuming she’s in Wuhan, the incentives are for her to understate the number. Whatever the accuracy of the number, I expect she believes it to be true.”
I don’t agree with your premise. Let’s assume the person on the video is really a nurse& is really in China. She could be overworked, stressed out, and exaggerating in order to draw attention to their need for help & supplies. There’s no doubt that the virus is making people sick. Seeing hospitals & health clinics ten times busier than normal & the clinics/hospitals running out of supplies would be frightening. If they had appealed to Beijing & weren’t getting a response, a person might feel that the only way they could get help would be to make a video & exaggerate so that the rest of the world puts pressure & helps them.
Or the video could be a hoax. Those are 2 other possibilities .