Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, etc. had all the lessons of Vietnam right in front of them. LBJ also had tried to pacify a far-away Asian country, and failed.
Bush ignored those lessons, and repeated LBJ’s mistakes in both Afghanistan and in Iraq. Restrictive rules of engagement were put in place. Winning hearts-and-minds became the main priority, etc. Were Bush and company stupid? Or is it better explained by arrogance?
I remember reading about a Iraq strategy meeting chaired by Rumsfeld. It was held shortly before the invasion. An Air Force general suggested that plans be drawn up to counter any possible insurgency.
Rumsfeld said that the next person who mentioned a possible insurgency would be fired.
My prediction for the war after 9-11, posted right here on 9-13-2001.