Posted on 12/29/2019 3:02:59 AM PST by upchuck
About this time in every presidential nomination contest there is talk of a brokered convention. As if on cue, we’re hearing it again...
In years past, most delegates went to conventions unelected by voters and unpledged to candidates. This happens less frequently these days. “Favorite son” candidacies, once used to park delegates until deals were cut, are now extinct. The “unit rule,” which forced state delegations to vote unanimously for one candidate, is also gone. Democrats now require the nominee win only a majority of delegates, long ago discarding the old two-thirds requirement...
Party strategists instinctively fear prolonged intraparty battling and its effect on general election prospects. That’s why they push to unite around one candidate as fast as possible. Next year, there will be several opportunities for that to happen. The first comes in February when four states vote. If Joe Biden wins Iowa and New Hampshire and continues to top national polls, an effort could emerge to rally around the former vice president as the nominee. While it’s conceivable something like that could happen, it’s more likely party activists would oppose shutting down the competition so soon.
The next milestone is Super Tuesday, March 3. At that point, 40% of delegates will have been selected from 18 states. Unless it’s a tight two-way contest, there will be enormous pressure to stop the fight by the end of April when 88% of delegates from 40 states will have been elected.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I expect Killary would gladly kill to get the nomination.
Gary Johnson, Libertarian, received 3.3% of the national vote compared to Stein’s 1%. And NeverTrumper French received .5% of the vote.
Johnson received 3 million more votes than Stein. Don’t buy the Stein impact on the election. Who is to say the Stein voters would have voted for Hillary if Stein was not in the race or if they would have voted at all? Using similar logic, Johnson hurt Trump more than Stein hurt Hillary.
NeverTrumper McMullen vice French
It’s gonna be the wookie.
The impact of Stein was critical because of where those voters were; they were an important element in key states (like Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000). Johnson probably did hurt Trump; did his vote count surpass Trump’s margin of loss in any state?
She has no interest in public life, and no interest in having her college papers scrutinized; did you ever get the impression she relished her role the way Hillary did from 1992-2000?
She’s rich, and doesn’t have to work another day in her life; despite media proclamations, I’ve never met anyone (of any race/color) with a positive thing to say about her. I do hear plenty of people (of any race/color) say nice things about Oprah; not the same for Big Mike.
Johnson offered an alternative to those that did not trust Trump to keep his campaign promises. Many were convinced that Trump would turn out to be just another leftist.
Now that Trump has proven himself to be reliable and Johnson is not running, the Libertarians will fall back to their sub 1% net of the votes.
Most of those that voted for Johnson will vote for Trump.
I agree - and I also think some of those who voted for Hillary out of concerns that “Orange Man Bad” will be voting for Trump as well. Not only did his presidency turn out to be nothing like the nightmare painted by the libs and their media, but many people - especially naive, unprincipled ones - will vote solely based on their wallets.
This isn’t wishful thinking on my part (I don’t assume Trump is a shoe-in), but rather what I’m gathering from DEMS’ take on the upcoming race.
> She’s rich, and doesn’t have to work another day in her life;
There MUST be somebody in power to continue the cover up. Hillary has the desire, but she probably doesn’t have the physical ability. There really is nobody else that has the name recognition and is entwined enough to be trusted to keep up the scam.
Thats how Chicago politics works - never deal with anybody that you don’t have something on. Think Lisa Madigan getting “elected” as Attorney General in Illinois. She was in there to keep a lid on things. You need somebody in the family.
I understand what you are describing, but taking the House may have sufficed to accomplish this. Given the motley crew of Dem candidates today, I suspect serious Dems who want to be president are waiting for 2024. This same scenario played out in 1992 (with a surprise ending); BJ Clinton announced his candidacy when Bush I was very popular, and other Dems assumed he would win re-election. It would be hard to repeat that now, because the media that cost Bush I the election, and put Obama in twice, has been circumvented by Trump; he communicates directly with his base, and his support seems unshakeable with most of them.
What states? Johnson got three times more votes than Stein received in the states of WI, MI, and PA.
Trump lost NH by 3,000 votes. Johnson received 30K votes in NH.
Trump lost MN by 44K. Johnson received 113K and McMullen 53K.
Trump lost NM by 65K. Johnson received 75K and McMullen received 6K.
Trump lost NV by 27K. Johnson received 37K.
To come flying in with a tablecloth for a cape.
contested convention is always possible and highly unlikely ever because conventions are controlled by the DNC and RNC, the Republicans to a lesser extent. If there is a “contest” it will be orchestrated as a show that produces the DNC’s annointed. We will know who the winner will be before the fireworks video.
Then that is the answer; he didn’t hurt Trump in WI, MI, and PA, and he did in NH, MN, NM, and NV.
Am I understanding that correctly?
Now how many people who voted for Johnson won’t vote for Trump now, and how many who voted for Stein WOULD vote for Hillary now?
This is too sensible to deny. Hillary: she couldn't, she can't.
As to Michelle Obama, somebody's wife as a last-minute switch is not unknown but it won't go over well on the presidential level. She'd be a token of her husband and a puppet of the Deep State. Right now she's rich and famous and living it up. Case closed.
I believe (subject to change!) the Dems know they are going to lose unless they can crash the economy and/or destroy DJT. They know it, therefore it doesn't matter who steps up to lose. But by November, something might go their way and then they need the most unobjectionable candidate. That is Biden. He can sway a few more voters where it counts (Rust Belt), as socialists cannot. Besides, he's so old, he's disposable, whereas Warren is still young enough to run again. And she's not all that popular. True, Biden has a lot of baggage (yet to be unpacked), but he's a better liar than Warren. Plus he'll take whatever running mate they tell him to take.
In the end, Trump has a 90+ percent chance of winning and will probably have it on Super Tuesday, so they'll play their deuce. Old Cracked Joe.
Biden has the least to lose by running at this point; he is an older guy, and the corruption involving his son would probably be more widely known by 2024.
All the forecasts made when Trump was elected were negative.....economy will crash, stock market will crash, he will start wars over his ego, he might use nuclear weapons when insulted, etc, etc, etc.
The FACT is that Trump has kept his campaign promises and did exactly what he said he was going to do....within the bounds of the constitution....and that will win him many votes.
Additionally, Trump’s approval among minorities is massive and what really scares the communist party. Even if they do not come out and vote for Trump, they will stay home and not for the selected communist either.
True.
I wish more had been done on the illegal immigrant issue (nothing improved here in NJ/NYC metro area), and wages had risen visibly for workers.
At which point they won't talk about it due to that thing about speaking ill of the departed.
Cannot understand the Dem candidates who dropped out before 1 vote was counted. Even Kammy Harris could have stayed in and not campaigned or spent any money.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.