No doubt the Dems will lose some seats due to their impeachment tantrum. The open question how many they pick up from GOP retirements and court ordered redistricting. Most likely, IMHO, is that it will be enough to offset their loses and they keep the House in 2020. Americans have a history of liking divided government and we can’t discount that no matter how revolting the Dems seems to us.
Most likely outcome in 2020 is what we’ve got now. Trump, Dem House and GOP Senate. The 2022 map looks really bad for GOP since they must defend near double the seats of the Dems and Burr/Johnson have already announced their retirements. The first twp years of Trump’s second term will be critical given the likelihood of a Dem Senate in his last two.
First, 2/3 of the retirement seats are in red/Trump districts. We won’t lose many, if any, of those. That leaves about 10 . . . but there are 10 D retirements/deaths (Cummings). We’ll get some of those. That aspect should be better than a wash-—perhaps a net loss of 2-3.
There are 30 (give or take) that flipped last time. We need a total of about 20. Van Drew was a start. I currently am tracking about 5-6 that look like very good chances for flips, including UT4, OK5, Lamb’s seat, McBath’s seat, TWO in NJ besides Van Drew, and so on.
The numbers are out there for us. All it takes is good candidates. It’s way too far ahead to look at 2022 for the Senate. Too much can happen between now and then.