No.
Here is an example of the oversampling aimed at your argument.
And yes all of this polling is push polling aimed at increasing thinkability.
At this point in the election it is unethical to play the unrealistic card.
Trump being elected was unrealistic.
Blacks are lied to all the time to increase Democrat affiliation.
We should publicly encourage belief in these polls.
This kind of bogus realism has infuriated me at FR every election.
NO, Trump being elected was NOT Unrealistic, it was the MOST LIKELY OUTCOME of 2016.... If you believe otherwise you are ignorant of history, political and otherwise. I won’t go into why, I spelled it out quite well many many times before election day 2016 that Trump was going to win, and was going win marching right up through the upper mid west (rust belt) and likely take every state up here except IL and MN.. and that he might even get MN.
The article you are pointing to is saying EXACTLY what I am saying.
Trump will do much better with blacks in 2020 than he did in 16, but he’s not going to get 30% And not hitting 20%.
Trump got 8% of the black vote in 2016. The Highest vote any GOP candidate has gotten in the modern era is 14% in the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan... By 1984, that number had dropped to 9% in his re-election. Think about that for a minute.
In 1984 the Country as a whole was FAR BETTER OFF than it was in 1980... but Reagan, the same candidate as 1980, had his support among blacks DROP by over a third. The next highest vote percentage by a GOP candidate was DOLE in 1996 where he got 12% of the black vote.. Bush1 got 11% in 88 and 10% in 92. Bush 2 got 9 and 11% respectively. McCain got 4% and Romney got 6% respectively
(all of this data is from https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/)
It is utterly ridiculous to think that because the Economy is doing well that Trump will get 30% of the black vote. or even 20% of the black vote).... That’s not going to happen. If it did, Reagan surely would not have LOST votes in 1984 among that section and Bush1 certainly should not have over performed him in 1992 in an election in the middle of a recession.
I do expect Trump to do better than he did in 2016... but the idea he’s going to outperform any GOP candidate by 50% of better among them, is just flat out lunacy. Trump may well surprise and get a better black percentage than Reagan did in 1980.. though i wouldn’t anticipate it.
I will make this caveat, if Warren is the nominee, I would fully expect Trump to outperform Reagan in 1980 and get the highest percentage of black support of any GOP candidate, however, I would still not expect it to get to 20%.
Trump started with 8% in 2016... if he does 12% he’s increased his support by 50%, and I would fully expect he may likely end up in that range (+/- 2 points of 12).
If the candidate winds up being Pocahontas, or Powder Puff Pete, then Trump will almost certainly raise the bar and beat Reagans 1984 numbers. Even then, don’t expect 20% and certainly don’t think it will be 30%.
If blacks were supporting Trump at that level, you wouldn’t need a poll to notice... The on the ground evidence would be obvious, just like it was for Trump. We are not looking at that sort of earthquake among the black vote for 2020. I would love for it to happen, but its not.
Black voters are currently where the blue dog democrat voters used to be... They know the party isn’t really helping them, and some are disengaging... but they are not to a point where they are going to abandon it in large numbers yet. IF the Dems keep marching the direction they are, eventually their will be a large segment of disengaged black voters ripe for the picking by the GOP, and someone eventually will come along and give them a reason to vote GOP, just like Trump did for the Blue Dogs... but they as a group are not there in large numbers yet.