If Jones internals show he has a chance of re-election the could lose him because he knows hes dead if votes to convict. Manchin just re-elected so its hard to say. The Mi Dude is up in 20 and in very close race but I would be shocked if he broke ranks and Senema is out in space so who knows.
Manchin might run for Governor and his state is conservative. Hes a guaranteed no vote. Same with Jones. As for Sinema, shell follow the polls.