For Democrats, It looks like a brokered convention is coming

Back in 2016, we speculated about a brokered convention. Remember the stories about Trump failing in the first vote and Kasich taking it in the third round?

Well, it may happen this time, as Karl Rove is outlining:

There’s growing concern among Democrats that their July 2020 convention in Milwaukee could open without a candidate who receives a majority of the vote on the first ballot.

The last time that happened to the Democrats was 1952.

There are now four candidates—Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren—who have enough support and money to be competitive through March.

A fifth candidate, Mike Bloomberg, has enough cash to burn a wet mule and a strategy that says he doesn’t care how he does until the 27 primary contests and two caucuses in March. Many mules will perish at his hands.

The problem stems from the party's rules and the proportional distribution of delegates.

So what happens if no one has the convention wrapped up? That's when the so-called "super delegates" step in and no one really knows what happens next.

They may go for the electable argument and throw the delegates into disarray, specially the left.

They may select Joe Biden and then please the delegates by forcing a VP on him, such as crowd-pleaser Stacy Abrams of Georgia.

So what happens if no one has the convention wrapped up? That's when the so-called "super delegates" step in and no one really knows what happens next.

That's the difference this time around - the superdelegates don't vote in the first round. They're 15% of the total vote, which is pretty decisive, and their allegiance is to the DNC, not their home states. In effect nothing has really changed but appearance in the absence of a single majority candidate on the first ballot.

The big hope of the RNC once Trump appeared on the scene in '16 was a brokered convention in which they could promote a third, "compromise" candidate, Kasich being at the top of most of the GOPe insiders' lists. Had it been Kasich vs. Hillary we'd be talking in terms of her second term right now assuming there still was a United States.

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