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““86 miles completed!” New wall or replacement wall?”

So far, the great bulk has been in areas where some sort of barrier previously existed, but illegal flows were among the highest nonetheless (replacing ineffective barrier, in the most critical locations). The construction of totally “new” miles has just started (the first bollard panels are now standing). I estimate the first full mile will be up next month (Dec 19).

Because the areas with the highest flows have long been the same (border cities, the densely populated Rio Grande Valley (RGV), and where roads are close on both sides), most such areas have long had some sort of barrier.

The main exception is the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) Sector, where extensive private ownership of the land, the shifting path of the river, the International treaty governing construction, and the potential for hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico have previously made construction too difficult.

The Trump Administration has taken on the challenge of building barrier there. They have acquired funding, awarded contracts and issued environmental waivers for about 100 miles of brand new, comprehensive “Wall System”, where no barrier previously existed. These contracts have just started construction. They expect to complete the construction by the end of next year (2020).

So that is the great bulk of the so-called “new barrier that is already in the pipeline. There are some other smaller segments that are already planned out of this year’s $3.6 billion of Military construction funds, whose contracts have not yet been awarded (should be soon, barring a legal injunction), as well as a very big “new” 52 mile segment running North along the Rio Grande from the Northern Edge of the Laredo urban area (acquiring the land is a challenge in Texas).

Also, some secondary barrier is going in to places where there was no secondary barrier before, so that is another issue of splitting hairs over terminology, as to whether that is “new” or not. One and a half miles of the secondary barrier in critical San Diego, now under construction, will be through the rough terrain where only a single small barrier existed before. That is scheduled to complete in January, and some is already built. Not only is a formidable thirty foot secondary barrier going in there, but the area has been significantly cleared and graded, with a new concrete road running the length, and new lights, cameras, alarms and sensors being installed. That door will be closed tight.

Several other border cities (Yuma, Calexico, Tecate) with previously high rates of traffic have already had contracts awarded for more such “new”secondary barrier, and construction there will be starting soon (also scheduled to finish before the end of 2020).

So the bottom line is that of the 400-500 miles we are likely to see at the end of next year, a good 100 or more (RGV) will be where no previous barrier existed, and about another 50 will be secondary barrier, where no secondary previously existed.

Additionally, the 2020 funds will start going on contract next year. I expect that will include significant construction of new miles in Texas around Laredo, and possibly all the way up through Eagle Pass and Del Rio, to the Box Canyon/Amistad Reservoir. So maybe as much as 200 miles there, and possibly some new runs in rural New Mexico, Arizona or California as well. As they work down the priority list, the proportion of “new” as compared to “replacement” miles grows.

The comprehensive plan to achieve full operational control of the Southern Border, developed in response to the president’s Executive Order 13767 of 25 January, 2017 (first week in office), identified a requirement for about 1,100 total miles of barrier to be built, and carefully prioritized those miles in order of importance to the mission.

The more than 500 miles already funded, cover areas that account for the great bulk of current traffic. A few hundred more miles from 2020 funding will cut deeply into the areas available for alternate routes. Very significant technological detection and tracking technology is also rapidly deploying to both the areas with, and those without barrier.

The bulk of the infrastructure needed to control the Southern border will likely be in the pipeline before the end of President Trump’s first term. Just what is already funded and scheduled to complete by the end of 2020 is a dramatic improvement, effectively closing the areas where over 80% of illegal traffic has historically crossed.