Replies

You are reading absolutely the wrong data.

In MS, in the two “blackest” counties, black turnout was down 8% and 11% from 2018. (2018!!!) This isn’t down from a presidential year.

This is incredibly significant.

In 2016, in NC, FL, PA, and, we think MI, black turnout was down 3% (we can prove the first three, the last seems intuitive from turnout). In these cases, the “stay at homes” were huge. They cost Cankles at least FL and PA outright. (3% in FL was = to about 110,000 votes).

So Trump’s “real” black vote was almost 10%, higher than that of Minion or W. Right now, ALL approval ratings (Rasmussen, Emerson, HarrisX are tracking a MINIMUM of black approval of Trump at 16%, and the latest two are maximums of 34%.

I have it in the middle, around 20%. Will they all vote Trump? No. But I think Trump will net gain about 3% more from 2016 (i.e., 11.5% actual) with an additional 3-5% MORE staying home (for an effective black vote of 13-15%. Could be more. That is totally destructive to DemoKKKrats.

OK, “but what about LA?” Trump wasn’t on the ballot in LA. The black support for Trump doesn’t always or even usually translate to Rs-—but it did in FLORIDA, where Scott and especially DeSantis benefited from higher-than-normal black support. This is undeniable. In DeSantis’s case, it was all due to school choice. That said, in LA, Rispone did not have such a connection to either Trump or school choice.

This is a “three step” process for blacks. Step 1 (2016): 3% fewer blacks vote for Ds, but don’t vote for Trump. Step 2 (2020): those 3% move to Trump, an additional 3-5% don’t vote, but none of them automatically vote for Rs; Step 3 (2022 or 24): 3% more blacks don’t vote, perhaps half of those who voted for Trump now vote for Rs.