Whomever the j@ck@$$ party nominates will win the urban congressional district where all the Somalis are concentrated. The state, however, is another matter.
The Hispanic heavy states of Nevada, Colorado and maybe even New Mexico could also be in play since a good share of them prefer a strong economy to open borders. If this happens, then Arizona moves out of the states in play as well.
Otherwise, I agree with your assessment.
I also think that if he chooses to campaign there Trump can make enough of a dent in California to turn the national popular vote into a blowout.