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To: mikelets456
states like NJ, NY, CA, MA and so forth, their blue gains will increase.

Does that matter? None of those states is in play--no?

37 posted on 11/11/2019 12:45:54 PM PST by SamuraiScot (am)
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To: SamuraiScot
Does that matter? None of those states is in play--no?

No, it doesn't matter for winning the Presidency. Whether you win California by 1,000 votes or 10 million votes the same number of electoral votes go to the winner (Team Donkey in that case).

It's all about what states can be flipped (in either direction). Obviously the focus will be on the states that had the closest election in 2016. They were:

You can also sort them by percent, but the it doesn't change which states are in the top 10 just order. I've marked the two endpoints here: the closest in percentage terms was Michigan at .3%, and the biggest margin of the top 10 in percentage terms was Arizona where Trump's margin was 3.9%

I've marked the Trump wins in bold.

So, mostly that is where the election will be fought, and won or lost. There might be some other states that either side tries to flip - but less than 10 additional.

Another way of saying that is that any moderately savvy election analyst could color in the 30 "most" states and probably get them all correct on election night.

California, New York, New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, D.C. (3 EVs), Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut -- these states are going to vote for Team Donkey. And a similar list (Idaho, Nevada, Nebraska, Montana, etc.) are going to vote GOP.

Florida is a particular problem for Trump. The population of Puerto Rico is 3.1 million. Because of the Hurricane many hundreds of thousands fled, and because of the slow recovery many haven't returned. The majority of those are in Florida.

Unlike Cubans who are a Republican voting block, Pureto Ricans are more typical of Latino voters and in general and lean heavily toward the Evil Party. (Puerto Ricans are all citizens and can vote in the election if they live in Florida, even though people living in PR don't get to vote.)

People who say that Trump won this huge victory are not looking seriously at the number. What's amazing is that so many close states broke the same way. And the 4 that broke for Clinton were the smallest, only 24 EVs total, not even as many as Florida.

It's gonna be another close election.

43 posted on 11/11/2019 4:20:54 PM PST by Jack Black ("If you believe in things that you don't understand then you suffer" - "Superstition",Stevie Wonder)
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