It is far fetched to expect actual war with Turkey or Iran, either separately or in concert. Neither of them have a death wish, and Putin is hardly Glenda the Good, but he’s rational. But when contemplating troop repositioning, the first thing you have to assume is that war might break out, and where that would put you. It is a valid and important consideration. Mr. Langfan, I think, is getting carried away with it. But who would have thought 101 years ago that some Serb nationalist would assassinate the crown prince of Austria, and that that would lead to such a terrible, protracted war. Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.
“But when contemplating troop repositioning, the first thing you have to assume is that war might break out, and where that would put you. “
You have to weigh the validity and strength of the risk of that “might” condition, before acting on it. I think that risk was far too low to use it as an excuse for Trump’s policy change. I think that risk was, frankly, nil.
I think Trump’s general view of not wanting to be involved in Middle East wars, period, together with his feeling we had done all we could vis-a-vis ISIS in Syria, together with his political promises were collectively, as a group, the lone impetus for Trump’s policy change, but no grander strategy than that. I also think the last leg in that group was actually the most important to Trump, with 2020 elections 12 months away.