Posted on 10/14/2019 7:19:02 AM PDT by Cronos
Ireland was a backwater for years following independence, leaving the UK and the subsequent political bitterness did a tremndous amount of economic damage that took decades to repair.
Their recent economic success has largely been the result of slashing corporation tax to the bone and lower than most other EU member states would like because it is making their economies uncompetative. Britain when it was in the EU provided something of a bulwark against the statism favoured by other major EU nations like France, but with us gone Ireland is going to come under tremendous pressure to ‘harmonise’ their taxes in line with the rest of the EU. Britain on the other hand, will be free to set those tax rates however they want, and will likely lean towards slashing corporation and other taxes to stimulate the economy assuming Corbyn has nothing to do with it, this is something the EU fears we will do outside the EU, it would certainly mitigate the impact of any tarriffs the EU might try to raise against us to make us more expensive and less attractive.
Yet the average wages are the same. That’s doing well.
As to net migration between the islands - do you have those numbers anywhere to view?
https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-uk-citizens-live-other-eu-countries/ A little over 150,000 British citizens living in Ireland wheras over 300,000 Irish live in the UK, and remember that Ireland’s population is about 4.9 million vs 65 million in the UK, so net migration is ridiculously skewed in both absolute and relative terms, and no wonder, since unemployment in Ireland is chronic even in the era of the ‘celtic tiger’. Also remember that most ‘Brits’ living in Ireland have family connections and probably view themselves as Irish culturally and emotionally. I don’t have the figures but highly suspect that the proportion of Brits living in Ireland whose Irish ancestry is negligable to the point of irrelevence constitute a tiny minority of ‘British’ immigrants living in Ireland.
Average wages are the same, but their gdp per capita simply reflects the fact they have a disproportionate amount of super-rich dragging up the gdp per capita rather than in terms of average wage or median income. A healthy society has a more sizable middle class rather than a powerful elite class of super-rich lording it over the less well off, in this Ireland is even worse than Britain. There is also the fact that unemployment is higher, which is not doing well and is reflected in the fact Irish keep moving to Britain to find work as they have done for centuries and continue to do so.
Also remember that Ireland’s success has been on the basis of super-low corporation tax, which the EU has been trying to undermine because it means Ireland gets to ‘unfairly’ compete with other member states. If the EU forced Ireland to harmonise corporation tax rates, and Britain, outside the EU decided to slash corporation tax rates and stick two fingers up to Brussels, Ireland would be fked. No wonder they and the EU are trying to place as many shackles on a post Brexit UK as they think they can get away with it. The last thing they want is a northern Singapore sucking jobs and prosperity away from them and making their high tax economies exposed for the shambles that they are.
The last thought in the minds of the Irish parties (north and south) negotiating the GFA was any possible consequences for the UK’s EU membership. The fact of EU membership was generally recognised as a lubricant in the process: but implications beyond Ireland were not the business of the negotiations. They were complicated and delicate enough without having to introduce extra-Irish/UK considerations.
I’m absolutely certain you’re correct, which is why I’m sure the GFA can survive adapting to the new situation, and a new proposal already seems to be received well by the Irish: the customs border being the sea. Naturally, it’s the Orange who will be more likely to object.
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