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To: Widget Jr
"Turkey could not justify invoking the NATO charter since the U.S. is leaving. That would push to a actual ending the conflict."

That sounds good.

How would the sentence I put in bold work?

88 posted on 10/07/2019 5:49:58 PM PDT by Syncro (Facts is Facts)
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To: Syncro
My speculation is:

If Turkey goes into Syria, they go it alone. Much of our effort that emboldened Erodgan was when the U.S. was working out of Turkey. The U.S. is leaving, international support for Turkish intervention will dry simultaneously.

Syria is a Russian ally. So where the U.S. moves, out, Russia backed forces move in where we leave. Including air defenses. Against air attacks, Russia could employ is own defensive combat air patrols.

Basically, the U.S. leaves, and Russia moves in where we left. Turkey is not going to risk fighting Russia by itself. Because the U.S. involvement is gone, and Syria has not attacked Turkey, Erdogan can not drag NATO into this.

Assad's regime survives, borders go back to much as what they were before.

Which is fine by me since overthrowing Assad was an incredibly stupid idea. He was a threat, but he was a contained threat. There was no need to remove him in am incompetently managed war that killed up to a half million and created five million refugees.

P.S.

I don't recall the source right now, but IIRC it that Biden was the one running the U.S. side of the Syrian civil war. So much of the mismanagement is his fault.

92 posted on 10/07/2019 8:38:50 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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