Posted on 10/07/2019 5:21:37 AM PDT by BeauBo
China’s major commercial banks have a funding issue outside Beijing’s control: They’re running low on the U.S. dollars they need for activities both at home and abroad.
The combined dollar liabilities at the big four commercial banks exceeded their dollar assets at the end of 2018, their annual results show—a sharp reversal from just a few years ago. Back in 2013, the four together had around $125 billion more dollar assets than liabilities, but now they owe more dollars to creditors and customers than are owed to them.
Bank of China is by far the greatest contributor to the shift. Once the holder of more net assets in dollars than any other Chinese lender, it ended 2018 owing about $70 billion more in dollar liabilities than it booked in dollar assets.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
I don’t think they will collapse as quickly as the Soviets.
The Soviets had no interest in murdering 1,000,000 or more to keep control (Which surprised a lot of Cold Warriors.) in either the Eastern Satellites or at home. Perhaps they also had no financial and logistical means of quelling unrest that spread out over 11 time zones.
I have no doubt that given their history of starvation as weapon and violent quelling of protests the Chinese would view 1,000,000 deaths as a footnote if they looked to be in danger of communist collapse. They purposely move troops from different provinces to where there may be unrest, rural troops in urban areas etc. Reason being they don’t want to give them the pause to shoot their neighbors.
I don’t believe the Chinese believe that capital is fluid and projects and factories can be moved. Companies as PR sensitive as they are will bolt to Vietnam or India as fast as they can if something like Tianamen happened again.
China should ask the Bidens for a few $$$$$$$$$ returned.
Capitalism requires freedom and that means freedom to fail.
In Communist China, failure as they say, is not an option, so they “fix” the system so it will not fail...yet here we are.
What is China going to do when they run out of dollars to buy fuel or food? Go to war?
Some suggest this is an option, but other then revenge against the west, how will that get them more fuel and food?
Hong Kong showed them the way and they shut their eyes to the real path to wealth. They would rather cheat, lie and steal from the west then do the hard work necessary to develop the country they already control.
There is a reason that Communism (Socialism) and Capitalism does not get along. Communism needs complete control, and Capitalism needs freedom.
This is just an opinion no more valid then your opinion.
At least a partial solution for China would be to end US tariffs on their goods being sold here. To do that, they’d need to stop subsidizing their companies (which would also save them money), allow the sale of US goods in China IN REALITY (rather than just in theory), and stop stealing the intellectual property of others. Do those things, and I’m quite sure that a deal will be offered by President Trump that helps the Chinese economy...
...and don’t think that Trump was unaware of, and unwilling to take advantage of, the crappy state of their foreign reserves. Mr. President, PRESS THE PEDAL TO THE METAL! Keep the pressure on...they will fold before too long.
BS. Exports to China ($850B/yr) are only 3% of US GDP. Your anti American worker scare tactics will not work here.
They need US, we don't need them. It's only a one way connection.
Treasonous talk....
Not to worry. Just like they copy our products to sell on the Cheap they’ll reverse-engineer how our $ is printed and start printing their own versions up:-)
You misunderstand, sir.
My point is this: The only way trump does not see a second term is either he dies before the second term starts, or something really bad happens in the economy. I’m not saying it’s GOING TO happen. I’m saying that’s all he would have to worry about. And since the batteries are dead in my crystal ball, I don’t know what the economy will look like before the election. And that is when it matters.
I do know that a lot of quite powerful people seem to really want do do all they can to tank it. We’ll see if they are successful.
Just sell your ghost cities for cash, that is, if a buyer exists for deteriorated property that China Inc. will merely confiscate.
The Fed is extending its overnight repo program for another month. This is where the Fed will give you “cash” for your treasuries overnight. The rates are pretty high right now...and the Fed is selling 40-$50 billion every night.
This points to a liquidity problem in the market—which is “normal” at the end of a quarter. But not normal going into November.
Yes, more reading the goat entrails.....
Oh, puhleeeze, stop with the nonsense. If they agree to a deal in which there is ACTUALLY free and fair trade, then even Trump has said that the tariffs will come off. You have to give something to get something, and the bigger the thing you want, the more you have to give to get it.
Dollars are the reserve currency. And right now the UST is the most popular bond in the world. You need to buy it with dollars.
So, the Treasury is collecting all of the dollars, sucking them out of the system. This means that companies that need dollars to transact with are having to pay greater prices for them. This is inflationary everywhere but in the US. For example, the price of gold has reached new highs in non us currency. This is the problem with a strong dollar.
When a large economy decides to trade in something other than dollars...the chickens will come home to roost. And that will be a bad day for us. But, right now, there are few alternatives.
Most of us on main street want the tariffs in perpetuity. It is what made the USA great in the 18th, 19th and the beginning of the 20th century.
Yes, it is always good to just assume everything is going to keep going the way it has. No need to do any risk management. That is why you are fully invested in Confederate dollars. Because the south will rise again.
The Fed is extending its overnight repo program for another month. This is where the Fed will give you “cash” for your treasuries overnight. The rates are pretty high right now...and the Fed is selling 40-$50 billion every night. This points to a liquidity problem in the market—which is “normal” at the end of a quarter. But not normal going into November.
Wait until after the election and Trump makes his move on the Federal Reserve. China will have a heart attack.
You are correct. Trump is doing to China what Reagan did to Russia.
Don’t count on China still standing. They only have 36% domestic consumption. If they are not exporting they are dying.
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