Well, to paraphrase Golda Meir, until the Islamofascists love their children more than they hate the West, nothing will change. Yes, there will be one or two defectors from the “cause”, but for young, uneducated males in that part of the world, ‘jihad’ makes them “men” and gives them a purpose, and a sense of power.
[for young, uneducated males in that part of the world, ‘jihad’ makes them “men” and gives them a purpose, and a sense of power.]
Tens of thousands isn’t that many. The thing about counterinsurgency is the need for patience. People talk about how wars used to be decisive and quick. Total war is decisive. But the friendly death toll from total war is massive. 300,000 GI’s died fighting Germany during WWII in less than 4 years. Less than 1% of that have died in Afghanistan. And the financial cost of total war is huge. WWII cost 2 years of economic output, as military spending was ramped up to 50% of the economy for 4 years. Whereas total appropriations for the Afghan campaign have amounted to about $1T over 18 years, or about 15 days of economic output.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2018-10/54219-oco_spending.pdf