If they believed there would be no repercussions, then why do it at all? What’s their advantage? To let the world know what they already know? No disrespect but that doesn’t add up in my mind.
They must be playing a longer game here, thinking several moves ahead. OK, so trying to play devils advocate, if they really believed there would be no repercussions, then this move could be an attempt to show Trump/US as a paper tiger - afraid to engage in conflict. That could very well be a calculus of theirs. They think Trump won’t engage, won’t do much damage, or won’t make it to a second term. Enemies of the US in China, Iran, Russia and elsewhere would love to show Trump as an empty suit / naked emperor.
But I don’t think that is a proper evaluation of the man or the situation. I think Trump would be more than happy to give back to them as good as they gave. It plays into his ‘deal of the century’ to neuter Iran and the Iranian regime. It also plays into his plans to disengage, as ironic as that seems - but taking out the Iranian regime and pushing an Israeli-Arab peace deal is easier with Iran out of the picture. Maybe as you say the regime will survive but I don’t see why, if we engage, we should let the mullah’s save face. If we engage, they will fall by our hand or by the gallows of their own people for screwing it up. We’ll see who is right in due time of course. But I saw what we did in Kosovo, what we did during Gulf War I. Those were not the dragged out conflicts of Iraq/Afghanistan post 9/11. Those were shock and awe - 100 days of bombing. Potentially, without one boot in Iranian soil (or, just a small number to laser the targets I don’t know what the technology is today), we could cripple Iran and it’s political regime. Neither the Iranian economy, nor the regime, could last 100 days of sustained military attacks from the air and sea. I don’t see Russia stepping in the way - indeed Russia could be bought off imo with promises of future Iranian market deals.
And an attack on Iran opens the floodgates - Israel will move to crush Hamas. Israel/US will move to crush Hezbullah in Syria and the Syrian proxy armies. Maybe Assad will survive but he will be isolated without Iran or Hezbullah or Hamas. Iran is facing total political and economic annihilation. It’s one hell of a gambit - assuming of course they are behind the attacks. Whether they are behind the attack or not, someone wants to blame them for it.
It’s a sad state of affairs these days. Having observed what the “deep state” has done in the attempt to remove/marginalize Trump, it is hard - very hard - to take what they may say seriously. They supported Obama’s Iran deal. Now they support, perhaps, strikes on Iran? It’s too much to bear honestly. I don’t know whom to trust. Even if I give Trump 100% of the benefit of doubt I can’t be sure he isn’t being played. Friggin’ sucks, frankly.
“To let the world know what they already know?” Fair point, but governments often forget even relatively recent lessons and need a reminder of how vulnerable they really are. As I’m sure you’ll agree, a failure to appreciate and understand history is a major contributing factor in appeasement of bad actors.
For one thing, the mullahs want Trump out of office just as badly as the Democrats; they had it much better under Obama and would fare better under Warren, Biden, Sanders, etc. They believe - as do the Democrats - that bringing the US into another war in the Middle East would greatly affect Trump’s re-election chances.
Can’t take exception with a thing you said, but they tried the same crap with Reagan until he’d had enough and all but destroyed their navy, most of which is now Boston Whalers. I suspect the response, if any, will consist of very carefully targeted launch installations and/or airfields. My direct knowledge of Iranian order of battle is dated, so I can’t say whether the attacks were conducted by cruise missiles or RPVs of some type. Either way, once Iranian responsibility is incontrovertible, I would expect a limited, but decisive, response - initially. If they continue to provoke a response, they may very well wake up to shock and awe themselves. I do not believe Trump would commit ground forces in a war with Iran. He may govern as a conservative, but he’s no neocon, which, I suspect, is why so many neocons remain Never-Trumpers.