Posted on 09/16/2019 4:50:58 AM PDT by Helicondelta
“If that “War” was “over in a day” what are we involved in today?”
As military strategist Clauswitz famously said, “War is politics, by other means.”
The Iranian regime hates us (Death to America! has been their signature motto). They have engaged in some level of political contest/warfare against us, since they invaded our embassy and took Americans hostage, as they came to power. They directed the attack on our Marine Barracks in Beirut in 1983, kicking off the modern era of suicide terrorist attacks (they had resorted to extensive suicide operations against Saddam Hussein’s 1980 invasion).
The Shi’ite Twelver Cult that runs Iran, believes that the prophesied apocalyptic final battle to achieve their final victory, establishing Islam (their kind) throughout the world, is now at hand. The highest calling of the faithful during these end times is to initiate the events that will bring about the return of the Hidden Imam (the Mahdi, or Messaiah) from occlusion. They fill bookshelves writing about it.
They continue to develop terrorist capabilities, and nuclear weapons capability - and target them at the USA, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
There is a saying: You can refuse to loan someone money, but if they really want to fight, you have to oblige them.
“The oil problem will hurt China”
Low oil prices is the only big thing that was going China’s way, and giving them a big reprieve on their balance of payments.
They are hugely dependent on oil and gas imports. They have been selling cars like crazy there, and their domestic demand for oil has been structurally rising rapidly, year after year.
They have to buy about 9 million barrels per day, so $10 a barrel more would hit them for over $30 billion per year in real dollars - hard currency, not their Monopoly money.
A $10 per barrel increase would drain their foreign reserves as much as a 7% tariff on all their exports to the USA.
Most big customers hedge their risk of market volatility, by signing long term delivery contracts, so such full and sudden effects to price swings would not be likely. But prices for some of their non-core demand would move on the spot price. The longer prices stayed higher, the more of China’s total imports would be paying the higher price.
China is one of the countries on Earth at highest financial risk to a severe rise in oil prices. It is hard to know the real value of their Foreign Reserves, except for their US Treasury holdings (a little over $1 trillion). Hong Kong is in worse shape than the mainland, but if one thing breaks, it could trigger others (stock markets, currency, debt/banking). If they start dumping Treasuries, it will likely be a sign of their approaching insolvency.
Beyond the end of China’s Foreign Reserves, lies a significant devaluation of their currency, and the wiping away of a lot of the net worth of their population. Probably a long period of low/no growth.
“Gasoline comes from oil.”
WHAT!! Hell it does!! I get mine from a boxy looking thing on the corner in a “Gas Station” and it comes right out of a hose.
You can’t fool me.
For good overview on how Islam did this over a 1,000 year period from Spain to North Africa to India and the extent of their slaughter and enslavement (which is astonishing), watch Dr. Bill Warner's talk Why We Are Afraid, A 1400 Year Secret starting at 15 mins.
Being overly "civilized" today has brought us to the point where our civic life is filthy, disease ridden, and filled with drug-addled crazies who endanger you and every family. Yet we and our kids have been endlessly taught to "tolerate" this destruction of our public civic life. We can't be critical of the bums and crazies out everywhere.
We have to stop being "tolerant" of things that are completely destroying public life. It's way past time to bring back the insane asylums and get these crazy people put away.
[For good overview on how Islam did this over a 1,000 year period from Spain to North Africa to India and the extent of their slaughter and enslavement (which is astonishing), watch Dr. Bill Warner’s talk Why We Are Afraid, A 1400 Year Secret starting at 15 mins. ]
https://www.livius.org/sources/content/diodorus/alexander-sacks-persepolis/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Jerusalem_(70_CE)#Destruction_of_Jerusalem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavery_in_Britain#Before_1066
https://en.natmus.dk/historical-knowledge/denmark/prehistoric-period-until-1050-ad/the-viking-age/power-and-aristocracy/slaves-and-thralls/
There’s a tendency to lump all Muslims into one group. For over a decade after 9/11, that was my tendency. I still think Islam is a rival to the ideologies of the West, but it’s clear that most Muslims are not our enemies. We’ve allied with the Ottomans to resist Russia’s world-conquering ambitions. The Crusaders allied with weak Muslim kings against men like Saladin who wanted the whole enchilada. The Castilian kings allied with the Muslim rulers of Granada against the al-Mohads pushing up from Morocco. And in time, we will ally with the Muslim rulers of the countries near China to resist its territorial expansion.
Really don’t need water pipelines here. It’s trucked for the distance from the water utilizes to the site. That’s a good paying job.
Sites move often, pipelines don’t.
And with our dams, rivers and lakes we have MORE than adequate water.
And today’s horizontal drilling techniques give the ability to work the equivalent of a dozen single vertical pipe of old.
We don’t need their oil and gas, we CERTAINLY don’t need to spend precious lives defending Saudi Arabia, which in my opinion is worse than Iran in the threat they pose to Christian civilization.
Let them fight it out. If Saudi Arabia defats Iran (very unlikely) or vice-versa, it will simply be SSDD except the winner will be weaker than they are today.
There was no appetite for a conflict with Bolton there. This is what appetite for a conflict looks like:
"the President is hereby authorized and directed to employ the entire naval and military forces of the United States and the resources of the Government to carry on war against the Islamic Republic of Iran; and, to bring the conflict to a successful termination, all the resources of the country are hereby pledged by the Congress of the United States.
Get that or go home.
Nonsense.
The pipeline thing was just a joke as he was talking about bringing the water from Pennsylvania. J. B. Thomas was the highest it has been in decades after big rains in Borden County. Red Bluff filled up pretty good during a wet spell on the Pecos but droughts are a part of West Texas. Besides, the wells are only targeting the deeper benches so that they hold all of the acreage. There are still multiple benches up the hole.
Just start mandating automakers produce cars with a natural gas/propane tank and injection system and we’ll all be shittin in tall cotton.
My oldest brother installed a conversion system on his chevy pickup with 350 CI engine in the late 70’s. Ran like a champ.
He’s right, never thought I’d see the day!
Your opinion is duly noted.
Or
Just kill them all.
Correct..
There were vall from Iranians for help. But the freedom anti mullah movement died when the world media turned tp the death of Michael Jackson
Nuke the Middle East and be done with it (with a drone of course)
Ah, someone (you!) finally mentioned the nukes angle. Thank you!
That’s a major driver in all this. I suspect that Pres. Trump used the Bolton dismissal as “bait”. That is, DT knows the Iranians must eventually be dealt with, as Iran MUST NOT be allowed to acquire nukes. But despite sanctions, the Iranians seem determined to tough it out, and even ramp up their misbehavior. (It doesn’t help that there are apparently too many sanctions waivers and the Euros are only partially cooperative.)
We likely had intel that a new Iranian backed strike at SA was in the works, although what might get hit apparently was unknown, as there seems to have been no attempt to defend the Saudi oil processing plants, or even warn of a strike. So... Fire Bolton now, instead of keeping him on indefinitely and giving little weight to his input. See how the Iranians react. Do they make at least conciliatory noises since a major US hawk is “out”? Or do they perceive weakness and attempt to rachet up the pressure from their side? Recent history says they’ll do the latter, and that provides a reason to whack ‘em hard, allowing us to undermine them far more than they can pressure us or our allies. (My suggestion is to hit their refineries and refined product import terminals, NOT their export capability. If they repair them, hit ‘em again, as often as needed. This can be done with little threat to our forces, if handled correctly.)
The real objective is surrender, or at least a major Iranian retreat from their present course of developing nuclear and medium & long range strategic capabilities. IMO, only this prevents a ME nuclear arms race and almost certain disaster.
Very good point. If the Muslims were the sort of monolith too many FReepers take them to be, they’d be a very dire threat. The trick is to keep them divided (easy - it’s sort of natural for them) and increasingly keeping the really bad ones busy fighting each other without a lot of US getting killed (tricky)... and... not allowing any more nukes into their hands. (The Paks having nukes is bad enough.)
That’s irrelevant, really.
What I mean is, like it or not, the US is part of the world economy, and if the global economy goes bust due to sustained energy supply disruptions in the ME, well, we might not go “bust”, but there’d certainly be at least a moderate recession here. THAT would probably result in the Dems getting the House, Senate, and Presidency in 2020. Such a result will cost a lot more (treasure, and eventually, lives) than any conflict with Iran, now.
These people (current crop of libs) are NUTS.
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