Back in 2013 and 14 cattle prices were sky high. The University Ag marketing folks I listened to said cattle would bottom in 2019 as part of the typical cycle that all commodities go through. So, here we are, cattle numbers are way up and prices are low.
In 13 and 14 soybeans had basically no carryover from year to year. 50 to 100 million bushel which is basically zero as i understand. Recently carryover was near 1 billion bushel, and possibly today is about 600 million. Prices are lower because of that.
This year has been horrible weather throughout the farm belt. China has flu in their swine herd and we are told it has or will cut their breeding by, get this, in half. That is alot of soymeal that China does not need this year or next.
My point is this. Sometimes the cards are not aligned in your favor and you have to weather it, in business or farming. Farming basically missed the setback in 2008 and 2009 as commodities were rising.
My other point is as prices were rising for commodities so was land, fertilizer, and especially equipment. So, equipment manufacturers may have overproduced just like farmers tend to.
Everyone needs to just be quiet and get to work.
They need to find some counter-cyclical business to keep going when the farm equipment business isn’t there.
Well put and accurate.
Cows are also in the ditch. Good time to be a buyer.