If Trump would win this district by just 3 points, he would lose the state by about 5.
There is work to be done.
He won’t win it by 3, it will be double digits.
You are making the same mistake (actually in the case of the media its a lie) that the media does when you conflate President Trump’s margin in a district with the district’s PVI.
They are two different things.
1. Presidential turnout is different. Comparing it to off-year/special elections is a special kind of stupid.
2. The PVI for NC-09 is R+8. The GOP won by 2.5%. Underperformance. Yes. Terrible? No. Especially considering that just last year, this was GOP +0.6. Basically a 2% point improvement from last year.
3. NC-03. No one wants to talk about that. That election happened tonight too. NC-03 has a PVI of R+12. The GOP won by 24 frickin points tonight. That result was actually near Trump’s margin. Keep in mind that NC-03 also had a hurricane hit two of the more Republican leaning counties.
IN FACT, Murphy overperformed TRUMP’s 2016 margin in the non-coastal counties by 4.5%.
Why don’t you want to talk about that?
Why doesn’t the media want to mention that?
“If Trump would win this district by just 3 points, he would lose the state by about 5.
There is work to be done.”
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OK, let me set everyone straight here.
I live in Charlotte, in this district.
Mark Harris is a decent, well-meaning man. But he was a terrible candidate. I’ve met him and watched him speak.
Very polarizing. Smuggish ex-pastor of a large Baptist church. Non-evangelical Republicans hated him. Similar situation to Judge Roy Moore in Alabama.
Republicans in this district are a little demotivated because of the Harris fiasco. Bishop ran a very negative, albeit effective campaign to win. I couldn’t tell you what Bishop is FOR, but he painted a great NEGATIVE picture of his opponent.
So for Bishop to have won at all is a blessing.
He will win rather handily in 2020.
You’re welcome.
“If Trump would win this district by just 3 points, he would lose the state by about 5.
There is work to be done.”
########################################
OK, let me set everyone straight here.
I live in Charlotte, in this district.
Mark Harris is a decent, well-meaning man. But he was a terrible candidate. I’ve met him and watched him speak.
Very polarizing. Smuggish ex-pastor of a large Baptist church. Non-evangelical Republicans hated him. Similar situation to Judge Roy Moore in Alabama.
Republicans in this district are a little demotivated because of the Harris fiasco. Bishop ran a very negative, albeit effective campaign to win. I couldn’t tell you what Bishop is FOR, but he painted a great NEGATIVE picture of his opponent.
So for Bishop to have won at all is a blessing.
He will win rather handily in 2020.
You’re welcome.
Midterm and special election DJT margins will not compare with Pres’ elections. Work to do, forever, but I love the smell of this one.
If Trump would win this district by just 3 points, he would lose the state by about 5.I don't think you can make this assumption. NC-9 is not the same district as it was when Trump ran in 2016. I believe it was redrawn in 2017 to be a more competitive district. In 2018 that proved to be true -- in a year where Dems were winning tossups all over, they almost won this district (GOP won by less than 1%). Then, it was revealed that the GOP candidate who won engaged in fraud, and the seat was vacated pending this special election last night. The Dem candidate was a Marine vet and seemingly very conservative on some key issues, and he had the luxury of basically never stopping his campaign from 2018 and all the liberal special interest money being dropped into his district on his behalf. Bishop was in big trouble until he was able to get this visit from Trump to help him pull it out by 2%.