And it was also a factor that the biggest error in our forecasting ability still remains intensity forecasting. The NHC was forecasting a cat 3 MOVING over the Bahamas - something they could handle. The stall happened - and nobody foresaw a stalled Cat 5. As a met, I cannot imagine. I saw it coming about a day ahead of time and told the wife...but I was even surprised at the duration and max winds. Other storms have done this very thing - but never over land. A storm did this back in the 60’s - but it was about 100 miles north of where Dorian did it and it too was a cat 5’
OK so I have to know, what are the actual uncertainty levels of the forecasts with and without the dropsondes? Are we talking like 50% and 5% or what?