And I assume Minnesota should be added to the “potential flips” issue.
No. Trump got 1.323 million votes in Minnesota in 2016. Romney had gotten 1.320 million votes four year before so Trump's support was about the same. What made the state close was that Clinton got about 180,000 fewer votes than Obama had gotten in 2012. You can't count on all those people staying home in 2020. And you can't expect them to turn out for Trump.