A break-up of the PRC:
Would it follow the USSR model, minimal fighting? No.
Would it follow the Yugoslav model, some fighting? No.
Would it prove totally different? Yes.
The bad part about a PRC break-up:
Bloodshed
The good part about a PRC break-up:
The problem of verrrry many Chinese men having no hope of ever marrying would go away
Or is that actually more BAD news..?
Not likely.
China is not a multi-national multi-ethnic state.
Or it hasn’t been so in a very long time.
Or it doesn’t matter because the Han are dominant everywhere.
There is one China, and it always ends up that way.
So the bet is which country collapses first,China or the USA? The bet is not as easy as one would think with so many factors. Thank god for 2A.
Communist regimes generally do not last beyond 75 years or 3 generations. They are reactionary governments. Once the founders die off there’s little justification for the system to remain.