IIRC(?), China imported about half their hog feed from the US, right? So, with half their hogs dead (and no end in sight), they really don’t need to import feed from us now, anyway...
I do have another, “bigger” question, though. Are USDA’s estimates of AG exports dependent on both projected export quantity AND price? That would seem to me to be the only sensible way to make such estimates.
If yes, then it seems to me that a drop in demand is a double whammy. We export less (and I should note here that this Swine Fever is affecting quite a number of countries in addition to China). Additionally, assuming no major grain harvest / supply problems (I also note that despite reduced acreage in the US for 2019, due to flooding and, I suspect, farmers’ awareness of the coming demand problems, worldwide supplies are looking fairly good), then oversupply will tend to drop prices. Add in a weak global economy. It usually doesn’t take much of an oversupply to drop prices substantially. I would not be surprised if this price drop due to what is effectively a supply glut affects the total $ value of US grain exports (to say nothing of the total $ value of US grain sales, export AND domestic) considerably more than just the reduction in bushels exported.
So, you are correct in saying (Ag) commodities are a global market, but, global demand vs. supply is down. That is what is really driving our reduced Ag exports. The “trade war” may not even affect commodity prices by the 10 cents you mention, when the overall picture is taken into account. In a global market it is, in one word, irrelevant.
Now, where I may disagree with you a bit is that if the Chinese economy were to collapse, then the repercussions of that (probable global recession) could hurt us a lot. So, I don’t think we want to “wreck” (my word) China. We just need them to fear it enough to straighten out.
“if the Chinese economy were to collapse, then the repercussions of that (probable global recession) could hurt us a lot. So, I don’t think we want to “wreck” (my word) China.”
A collapse of the Chinese economy will (very) likely tip the global economy into recession. Probably a bad one (if it is a complete collapse), but probably not a depression-like one.
China’s finances are more insulated from the Global financial system, so a financial collapse there (Bank failures, debt defaults and collapses of their real estate, stock markets and currency), are less likely to effect the rest of the world than the 2008 crash. But global demand would slow.
I think that the massive financial fraud that is the Chinese economy is going to pop on its own anyway, so it is wise to try to get as much of our business and essential supply chain out of there in an orderly way, while we still can.