navy has a good record down here.
Take it from somebody used to looking at model guidance, there is no real certainty on this outcome, anything could happen and nothing is off the table (for FL, gulf coast, or southeast US). Can’t blame the forecasters, just too much spread in guidance. Some sort of clarity maybe by Saturday, by which time perhaps a 48h window for response. I wouldn’t advise anyone in FL to wait around, evacuation could be very tricky once the details become more obvious.