...what China is banking on.
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Do they then reverse course and become compliant when POTUS is re-elected?
Or do they have other options ready to be gamed?
Good questions. If Trump is re-elected my view is that they will eventually sign a trade agreement, but not really honor it (so what’s new?). In other words, agree to a fake deal to buy more time. They are notorious for playing the long game so what’s four more years of waiting?
But if more businesses move their operations outside of China and the Chinese economy noticeably deteriorates then who knows what high level, game changing political “adjustments” could occur?
The possibilities are manifold but I think we are holding a strong set of cards and if we demonstrate resolve, China may bend, but only in a face saving way.