Border Dispute: How India’s Kashmir move complicates the border issue with China

India’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led government realised a long-standing aspiration of its followers and ideological fellow travellers on August 5.

By announcing it would abrogate Article 370 of the Indian constitution, thereby ending special status for the state of Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi moved to consolidate its control over this region.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his right-hand man and home minister, Amit Shah, had cashed in on the massive electoral mandate the party had won in general elections earlier this year.

While the government’s move has won favour among both supporters and some opposition parties in India, it has opened a geopolitical Pandora’s box.

Pakistan, which claims the entirety of India-administered Kashmir as its own territory, has protested and downgraded its diplomatic ties.

Islamabad’s retaliatory actions are expected to continue and may spill into increased clashes along the sensitive Line of Control, which demarcates the Pakistani-administered portion of Kashmir from the Indian section.

But while most international attention remains focused on how Pakistan will play its cards next, China’s role in Kashmir has been relatively neglected.

India, along with Bhutan, is one of just two countries that have yet to settle their land borders with China.

Delhi’s move in Kashmir is likely to complicate future talks on finalising the border between India and China.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after more than half a day of silencer, condemned India’s actions.

“China is always opposed to India’s inclusion of the Chinese territory in the western sector of the China-India boundary into its administrative jurisdiction,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said in a statement.

She added that India “continued to undermine China’s territorial sovereignty by unilaterally changing its domestic law,” in an apparent reference to Delhi’s move on Article 370.

The accusation that a change in Indian law could affect China’s sovereignty was particularly bold – especially given Beijing’s own use of domestic law to strong-arm claimant states in the disputed South China Sea.

In any case, China continues to administer the large Kashmiri region of Aksai Chin, which sits just east of India-administered Ladakh, an area in northwestern India that will come under New Delhi’s direct rule as a result of the changes.

Ladakh used to be part of the erstwhile Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, which no longer exists, but will be succeeded by a new so-called union territory with the same name.

India’s consolidation of autonomy over Ladakh – and by extension Aksai Chin – will set up a new challenge as the two countries continue a dialogue on the border dispute. The 22nd round of that process should take place later this year.

For years, even as New Delhi and Beijing had temporary crises along their border, including the 2017 stand-off over an obscure patch of Bhutanese territory known as Doklam, their dialogue has mostly continued.

While no final resolution of the border dispute was imminent, the two sides were heading toward a crystallisation of the old status quo, with India likely making concessions on Aksai Chin, and China on the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

However, with India’s abrogation of Article 370, Beijing may find itself toeing an uncompromising line on the border – taking what is certain to be a less compromising stance than before.

In particular, China’s claim over Tawang, a town in Arunachal Pradesh, is likely to harden as a result of India’s reorganisation of Ladakh.

Moreover, Tawang’s prominence in the border dispute may take on special importance should the Dalai Lama die, setting up a succession crisis between a Beijing-anointed successor and a legitimate successor outside Tibet.

In the near term, we may also expect Beijing to push the envelope along the Line of Actual Control (LoAC) – the demarcation separating Indian-administered areas from Chinese-administered ones.

While a redux of the Doklam stand-off of 2017 may be unlikely, Chinese crossings of the LoAC in Ladakh may increase to protest against India’s actions.

With its move on article 370, India will have to concern itself with both of its disgruntled neighbours.

While the situation with Pakistan will remain more acute in the coming days, India just made the task of finding a lasting solution to the border dispute with China a lot more complicated.

Basics:

India shares total boundary of around 3,488 km with China (second largest after Bangladesh).
The Sino-Indian border is generally divided into three sectors namely: Western sector, Middle sector, and Eastern sector.
5 states viz. Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh share border with China.

Western Sector:

In the western sector, India shares about 2152 km long border with China. It is between Jammu and Kashmir and Xinjiang Province of China. In this sector, there is territorial dispute over Aksai Chin. Both countries went to war in 1962 over disputed territory of Aksai Chin. India claims it as part of Kashmir, while China claims it is part of Xinjiang.

The dispute over Aksai Chin can be traced back to the failure of the British Empire to clearly demarcate a legal border between China and its Indian colony. During the time of British rule in India, two borders between India and China were proposed Johnson’s Line and McDonald Line.

The Johnson’s line (proposed in 1865) shows Aksai Chin in Jammu and Kashmir i.e. under India’s control whereas McDonald Line (proposed in 1893) places it under China’s control. India considers Johnson Line as correct, rightful national border with China, while on the other hand, China considers the McDonald Line as the correct border with India.

At present, Line of Actual Control (LAC) is the line separating Indian areas of Jammu and Kashmir from Aksai Chin. It is concurrent with the Chinese Aksai Chin claim line.

Middle Sector

In this sector, India shares about 625 km long boundary with China which runs along the watershed from Ladakh to Nepal. The states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand touch this border with Tibet (China) in this sector. Both sides do not have much disagreement over border in this area.

Eastern Sector

In this sector, India shares 1,140 km long boundary with China. It runs from the eastern limit of Bhutan to a point near the Talu Pass at the trijunction of Tibet, India and Myanmar. This boundary line is called McMahon Line. The boundary was established along the Himalayan crest of the northern watershed of the Brahmaputra, except where the Kemang, Subansiri, Dihang and Lohit rivers break through that watershed. China considers the McMahon Line illegal and unacceptable claiming that Tibetans representatives who had sign the 1914 Convention held in Shimla which delineated the Mc Mahon line on the map were not having rights to do so.

What is recent Doklam issue?

Indian and Chinese troops are facing off once again in Sikkim at Doko-La (or Donglong, as the Chinese call it), which lies at the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan.
There have been growing tensions between India and China.
Both countries have upped the ante and deployed around 3,000 troops each in the tri-junction.
The Doklam area has huge strategic significance for both India and China.
It close to proximity of sensitive Chicken’s Neck, or the Siliguri Corridor, which is an extremely narrow stretch of land that connects the north-eastern region to the rest of India.

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