I’d caution giving too much weight to a small number of local races with low numbers of voters. Completely local issues and individual candidate qualities dwarf the effects of national sentiment in these cases.
No one is overestimating the wins, we just see that the voting base is motivated to vote for the GOP. These are local elections, show the voting should smaller not larger in terms of % then the norm.
Well, did you look at turnout?
Did you know that in 2018, one of the D flips was on the basis of 100 votes? That they flipped several local seats by less than 1,000 across several states?
Trends are trends. We ignored this trend in 2017-2018. Don’t ignore it again, especially when the trend is your friend.
And don’t forget the LA race where an R won for the first time in decades.