If the R won by 1%, in a district where they win by 15% on average, you wouldn’t be concerned? I sure would be. If you agree, then why doesn’t winning by 25% in that same district mean something? Likewise, if R’s have lost any special elections by a lot less than R’s normally do in some districts, that also means something.
Why R’s are doing well in these races is still open to interpretation. Maybe what we thought might happen last year is now occurring, i.e. many Democrat leaning voters perceive the party’s been captured by lunatics. We can hope anyway.
Good point, underperforming would be a sign of concern. The base is motivated and ready to vote!