“We are indeed not far from a 50% stock market drop”
Really? Ok, let’s see. The markets are strictly driven by corporate earnings. Corporate earnings are driven by sales of their product. We are at full employment with low interest rates and wages rising faster than anytime in the past 12 yrs or more. There is low to no inflation of note.
It’s all propelled by consumer spending which is about 70% of our economy and consumer spending is very strong.
See here.
https://www.ft.com/content/6cb54a2a-bf55-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722
So what will be the cause of this 50% sell off? Surely you are not buying into the silliness of the inverted (for all of about 4 hrs) bond yield, are you?
I do not know what will be the "Cause" of the drop - Usually it is something unexpected.
Also there are Cycles - 2000, 2007 and there is a reversion to mean (200 day average)
Large amount of Debt (Corporate and other). Take a look at GE and pay attention to Car Sales and Oil