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To: nathanbedford

Read Peter Zeihan. He thinks Russia will be a problem, but that due to mutual energy needs, Russia and Germany cannot possibly ally.

Germany will also be a problem. Their nearest source of oil is over 1,000 miles away.

Both have hugely declining populations. Neither has east-west navigable rivers. Germany is heavily dependent (as it was in WW II) on a low-wage/slave labor work force.

Of the two, Germany is the most dangerous as it will be the most desperate.

BTW, by 2030, the US will be, on average, 3 years younger than China. “Demographics is destiny.”


10 posted on 08/15/2019 5:50:55 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: LS
Actually southern Germany has a river, the Donau which we call the Danube which connects all of Bavaria through its tributaries with most of the ancient cities of Eastern Europe ticked off by Winston Churchill in his Iron Curtain speech and ultimately carrying trade to the Black Sea and thereby to Russia.

When I first came here an elderly lady, my next-door neighbor, gave me a book styled,Inn herrlich strömender, grünblauer Fluß which describes the trade running near my house through Bavaria and on to the black sea dating to the middle ages. Interestingly, the crews on the barges that handled the horses and the towing were required by law to get many liters of beer a day.

Rivers today are not of much relative economic importance but they historically account for the fact that most of the village churches in my area have Bell shaped steeples. And they account for the fact that Hitler, the son of a minor custom official, was born on a little town along the river where a custom station was established, as described in the book above.

As to declining populations, I entertain a very minority view, at least in the longer-term, I believe that those countries, especially Japan, which refrains from importing uneducated and dependent workers to compensate for an aging population will prosper because they turn to robots. I think Germany's problem will be the demographic wave which now appears to be inexorable that show a Muslim takeover in my children's lifetime. If that occurs, Germany will have more on his plate than its energy policy.

Perhaps the irony is that a Muslim population will bring Germany to its senses-at least about its obsessive environmentalism. Electric bills here are the highest in Europe after they shut down domestic atomic energy sources of electricity. We still get much energy from atomic energy, but that comes from France where the prevailing winds will no doubt bring us the results of any catastrophe.

Germany has always looked to the Eastern states as substitute colonies that Germany could not acquire because it came into the nationstate business under Bismarck too late for colonies of consequence so it turned to the east for markets and exploits the European Union in that fashion even today. Incidentally, German GDP consists of more than 40 % exports!

Thus, when my neighbor speaks of needing Russia more than America, he is thinking traditionally about markets for Germany's exports. Better he should look into those churches under those bell steeples for relief from the demographic wave about to crest over Germany.

,

18 posted on 08/15/2019 7:11:56 AM PDT by nathanbedford (attack, repeat, attack! Bull Halsey)
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To: LS

Their nearest source of oil is over 1,000 miles away........................ Was Norway pushed further north?


28 posted on 08/15/2019 8:25:00 AM PDT by Bringbackthedraft
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