Trump’s tariff pause shows he’s got his eyes on the prize

President Trump’s delay on implementing announced tariff increases on Chinese goods that would be on many Christmas shopping lists sparked a stock market bump yesterday. But, while domestic considerations (i.e., his re-election) are important, the move must be seen in the broader context of a staredown with President Xi. Even though China is a dictatorship, XI’s hold on his job is not something he can take for granted.

Xi has grabbed power, purging some of his enemies and ending limits on his tenure, which makes him personally responsible for the serious ill-effects of his tariff war with Trump and for the unrest in Hong Kong. China in a no-win situation with the former colony. Even worse, the crisis comes as China’s leadership is gathered for its annual meetings at Beidahe, a coastal resort, a practice with six decades of history. No matter how much power Xi has grabbed, if the heads of the power bases of the party turn on him, blaming him for “serious errors,” his rule could end.

Anna Fifield in the Washington Post:

“Xi Jinping and the rest of the Chinese leadership are under siege,” said Elizabeth Economy, a China expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“The Chinese economy is slowing significantly, exacerbated by the trade war; and the ‘China model’ is cracking under the weight of Xinjiang, Taiwan, Belt and Road messes and, most significantly, the massive protests in Hong Kong,” she said, referring to China’s efforts at control and influence within its borders and beyond.

Time is not on Xi’s side:

Hong Kong students are making plans to demonstrate when universities resume classes next month.

[Even though China is a dictatorship, XI’s hold on his job is not something he can take for granted.]

Precisely. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping had just emerged from years in internal exile, where he hid out during the Cultural Revolution under the protection of Ye Jianying, the man most responsible for Mao’s personal survival during the Long March. Hua Guofeng, in contrast, was Mao’s handpicked successor, whose features actually resembled Mao’s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ye_Jianying
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hua_Guofeng

By the end of the year, Hua was ousted, and Deng Xiaoping hoisted to the position of head honcho.

There were rumors floating around that Hua GuoFeng was Mao’s illegitimate son.

He was a surprise pick out of the blue as he was relatively unknown.

[There were rumors floating around that Hua GuoFeng was Mao’s illegitimate son.]

That would not be surprising, given that Mao slept with a veritable harem of teens, who were proud to bear the emperor’s offspring. How well they were provided for by the state is something that will become clear only when China’s state archives are declassified, perhaps centuries from now.

There are many headwinds to China’s economy now.

The ones listed in the article.
EU slowdown
Competition from non-China Emerging Markets like Vietnam

And the worst of all...

Marxism and all it brings.

Finally, an article that makes sense.

All the rest of the drivebys, hating Trump, and wanting to harm him politically, have been saying Trump blinked.

I don’t think he did. If he truly had no courage on China, he wouldn’t have done what he’s done so far.

No, he’s like a shepherd, first guiding his flock, then using the dogs to push then one way, then another, and back to guiding.

He’s got a long game in mind when it comes to China.

[Marxism and all it brings.]

Today’s China is about as Marxist as Warren Buffett. China has a market economy, tempered by the government’s desire to retain what, back in the day, were imperial monopolies that served as the emperor’s personal slush fund. It was a vehicle to reward his supporters and pay for things that he wanted. The problem with these monopolies is that they stoked resentment among the hoi polloi that was amplified during times of hardship. One of these rebellions apparently served as the inspiration for one of China’s Four Great Classic Novels.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/2718645.pdf?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

Ultimately, China’s problem today is the problem that has afflicted the country for all of its recorded history - emperors who think they are all-seeing and all-knowing, and intolerant of dissent. The Communist Party was merely a fig leaf for the continuation of imperial rule by another label.

Sorry; the Chinese of today are as Marxist as Italy and Germany pre-WW2.

Private ownership is permitted so long as it benefits the State.

[Sorry; the Chinese of today are as Marxist as Italy and Germany pre-WW2.

Private ownership is permitted so long as it benefits the State.]

Out of curiosity, what’s your background vis-a-vis China? While not Chinese myself, I’ve been an amateur China watcher for decades. I’ve read the equivalent of 100 books on Chinese history and contemporary China, albeit only from English language sources.

It wasn’t hard to see the changes, from The Great Leap Forward to Xi Jinping Thought have made to what had been classic Communism.

My focus has been on the economics. As I said, they went from Communism to Fascism without calling it that.

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