Posted on 08/07/2019 7:47:23 PM PDT by KC_Lion
China has embarked on a high-stakes strategy that makes it very unlikely to agree to a deal quelling trade tensions with the U.S. before the 2020 presidential elections, many investors and China watchers say.
The plan that appears to have emerged in Beijing is to keep trade talks going while avoiding any real reforms or enforceable deals until after the election, according to several reports. At that point, China could find itself facing a new administration that would likely be far easier to cut a deal with than President Donald Trump.
Under this scenario, China would tolerate the short-term economic pain inflicted by tariffs in order to preserve its long-term strategy of deploying predatory mercantilism in pursuit of global economic dominance.
“Many investors have expressed the view that China is prepared to accept an economic downturn (and thus a global economic downturn) to prevent President Trump’s reelection,” Naka Matsuzawa, Nomura’s chief rates strategist in Tokyo, wrote in a note on Wednesday.
China also hopes that trade tensions and its retaliation will hurt the U.S. economy, perhaps enough to tip the balance against Trump’s reelection.
“China’s leaders appear to have concluded that they won’t secure an acceptable trade deal with President Trump,” Nathaniel Taplin explained in a recent column for the Wall Street Journal. “What they can do is try to weather the next 18 months while inflicting maximum political damage—and hope a weakening U.S. economy delivers a new president.”
“Trump’s actions have seriously agitated the Chinese leadership, who now realize that there’s no chance of reaching a fair deal with the U.S.” for the foreseeable future, Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Beijing’s Renmin University, recently told the Wall Street Journal. “China is not just preparing for a protracted trade war, but also an escalating conflict.”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Trade wars are good and easy to win.
That was Tex Cobb’s losing strategy against Evander Hollyfield.
The Chinese Communist Party can’t wait for Joe to make their Country Great Again , D’oh
If Trump loses, we can blame it on Democrat collusion with China.
This should make a good campaign commercial for PDJT!
Can they outlast Trump Jr in 2024 to 2032?
I don’t think so.....
China is hoping that Joe Biden becomes the next President.
15 months isnt short term, and there are a ton of commie billionaires in China that will pay to have this idiot killed! Look for food riots in the next few months. Russia can’t support China.
Or outlast the collapse of their own currency
Fine, raise the tariffs to match China then cancel all visas.
By the time Trump leaves China will be broke and technological retards.
China already owns the Biden family. FACT!
LOL. What food riots? Baltimore would have food riots ahead of China if anything.
They won’t be able to keep it up if they and their vassal states (Russia, Iran, NK, etc.) don’t have bumper harvests next year.
This plan will require China to make huge cuts in their foreign influence at the least. Takes money to buy friends, and China will have to spend that money on their peasants.
Hardly a new strategy. This strategy has been apparent for quite some time. On July 14 I wrote this reply:
China has other very significant considerations on its plate. It is in a make or break war with the United States to become the world’s dominant economic and military power. Trump has directly confronted that ambition and threatens to derail it. In breaking off trade negotiations and reneging on its agreements, China has concluded that it must prevail over Trump if it is to realize its ambitions. It might be thinking that it need not prevail over the United States, merely temporize until the 2020 election or until internal domestic pressure to withdraw tariffs becomes too great for Trump to withstand.
On August 6, I wrote this which anticipates very neatly the article leading this thread:
The real questions are, what is China doing and why?
China's obviously buying market share, or, more accurately, protecting market share to compensate for the tariffs with lower prices. Why is China doing this? I believe it is motivated by more than the obvious need to hold onto its market share in exports, it is a signal that China is not going to come to an agreement before 2020.
I think it tells us that China believes that its downside risks of inflation and loss of reserves can be managed very easily in this command economy, at least until 2020. It tells us that China is keeping its factories open by reducing prices so that civil unrest-the biggest chronic fear of China's elite-can be managed, at least in the short term.
Most importantly, this move tells us that China is not in this game as a game but as a existential war. I think they know they can survive very well until 2020 and if Trump is reelected they can go on until 2024.
We must understand that China regards this not as a trade war but as and existential war for survival. They are fully committed, we have Democrats and rinos.
Don Jr
Erik
Ivanka
Quite so my FRiend.
Like the poor, it seems that rinos and dems will always be with us.
I think it is time to dissociate ourselves from China.
Buy things from elsewhere.
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