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What Hong Kong's Turmoil Means For Taiwan
National Public Radio ^ | August 3, 20197:57 AM ET | Julie McCarthy

Posted on 08/04/2019 1:02:04 PM PDT by Zhang Fei

MCCARTHY: Taiwan Democracy Watch president Wen-Tsong Chiou says Hong Kong is for Beijing a petri dish to examine the viability of the one country, two systems formula for Taiwan.

WEN-TSONG CHIOU: They are testing the solutions - how to handle this type of demonstration in a democracy. So they are learning. They are learning from Hong Kong.

MCCARTHY: Patrons of Taipei's Saturday morning flower market seemed resigned to events in Hong Kong, saying it had been absorbed by China two decades ago. Wu Hsueh-Chen (ph), 62, says there's an inevitability to how the protests will end.

WU HSUEH-CHEN: (Foreign language spoken).

MCCARTHY: "China will win because the army is ready to enter Hong Kong," she says. "Taiwan won't win a fight with China, either. What we should do is prevent China from penetrating our society," she says.

Wu's husband Wei Han-Ching (ph) says there is one way to avoid Beijing deploying force against Taiwan.

WEI HAN-CHING: (Foreign language spoken).

MCCARTHY: "If you don't say you want to be independent, China won't do anything," he says. "If we don't violate that principle, we should be OK."

China accuses the United States of interfering in both Hong Kong and Taiwan. Last week, its defense ministry said that if anyone dares move on Taiwan independence, China's military, quote, "will be ready to go to war."

(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; hongkong; maga; taiwan; trump
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Taiwan is spending just north of $10b on defense. Whereas Israel, which merely faces a bunch of Arabs, spends about $20b. Note that Taiwan has almost 2x Israel's GDP. This is a country that's not serious about its defense. The question, echoed throughout our alliances, is whether we should care about their sovereignty when they don't (at least not enough to spend much on at least warding the enemy off until the (US) cavalry come to the rescue).
1 posted on 08/04/2019 1:02:04 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
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To: Zhang Fei
Thank You for posting Zhang Fei.

Very interesting read and information.

2 posted on 08/04/2019 1:05:18 PM PDT by KC_Lion
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To: Zhang Fei

Reads like Chinese inspired propaganda. Taiwan better not seek independence. Repression of Hong Kong inevitable. Now you want to complain about Taiwan because it doesn’t spend as much as Israel.

How about we isolate China and tell it to screw off until it establishes liberty? Communist thugs.

Taiwan isn’t bothering anyone. Screw the Red Chinese.


3 posted on 08/04/2019 1:15:55 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: Williams

[Reads like Chinese inspired propaganda. Taiwan better not seek independence. Repression of Hong Kong inevitable. Now you want to complain about Taiwan because it doesn’t spend as much as Israel.]


Taiwanese have free and fair elections. Neither party has moved to increase defense spending, despite the clear and present danger across the Taiwan Strait. If they don’t care about their sovereignty, why should we care about theirs? No amount of economic isolation will prevent China from invading Taiwan. Let’s say China invades and overruns Taiwan. Would you favor sending troops to evict a 1m strong Chinese garrison on the Island?*

The fact is that a lot of the Taiwanese are defeatists who are willing to fight only if Uncle Sam does all the fighting (and dying) for them. The easiest thing they can do in terms of warding off the Chinese threat is be armed to the teeth. But they’re not doing it. There is no question the Chinese will invade (unless Taiwan surrenders first). The only question is when.

* Note that all through this, the Chinese will be making nuclear threats. While I think these are empty threats, given the irrationality of trading hundreds of Chinese cities and hundreds of millions of Chinese for Taiwan, they will give US policymakers pause, if not the average Joe wondering why we’re taking such big risks for people on the other side of the globe.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhu_Chenghu


4 posted on 08/04/2019 1:32:03 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei
Taiwan is spending just north of $10b on defense. Whereas Israel, which merely faces a bunch of Arabs, spends about $20b. Note that Taiwan has almost 2x Israel's GDP. This is a country that's not serious about its defense. The question, echoed throughout our alliances, is whether we should care about their sovereignty when they don't (at least not enough to spend much on at least warding the enemy off until the (US) cavalry come to the rescue).

I get what you're saying, but at the same time, the US has historically dragged it's feet on sales of arms to Taiwan. Trump has got the ball rolling but he is limited in what he can do without congressional approval. They've asked for more F16s and were previously denied. Perhaps Trump can encourage arms sales to Taiwan by Israel and other allies.

5 posted on 08/04/2019 2:26:26 PM PDT by Sparticus (Primary the Tuesday group!)
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To: Sparticus

[Perhaps Trump can encourage arms sales to Taiwan by Israel and other allies.]


The only country willing to take the brunt of Chinese anger (expressed through tariffs and non-tariff barriers) over arms sales to Taiwan is Uncle Sam. And that’s because we run a large surplus with China, so any Chinese moves in that direction are an invitation to retaliatory measures that will hit them much harder.

As an aside, what the Chinese don’t seem to understand, with their hankering for a Democratic administration, is that the GOP is the traditional party of free trade. The Democrats are the traditional party of high tariffs. And politically-speaking, the Democrats don’t really care about the flyover state ag exports that form most of China’s US imports. So they can tariff China to their hearts’ content. If Trump loses in 2020, I expect China to get an even worse deal. But then again, Chinese leaders aren’t known for their judgment or their long-term thinking. That’s why, despite a 5000-year head start, they’re still playing catch-up.


6 posted on 08/04/2019 2:35:33 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Dear friend, AMERICA doesn’t spend enough on defense either. Taiwan is strategically important. You seem to be peddling some anti Taiwanese propaganda straight out of China’s handbook. NONE of our allies in this entire world spend “enough” on defense, including Europe, Japan, South Korea.

Screw the Red Chinese the people of Taiwan don’t “deserve” to be killed. The Communist Chinese deserve that fate.


7 posted on 08/04/2019 2:55:44 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: Zhang Fei

And you’re peddling that Democrats will be tougher on China than Trump???

What a crock of unadulterated Red China horsecrap.


8 posted on 08/04/2019 2:57:38 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: Williams

[Dear friend, AMERICA doesn’t spend enough on defense either. Taiwan is strategically important. You seem to be peddling some anti Taiwanese propaganda straight out of China’s handbook. NONE of our allies in this entire world spend “enough” on defense, including Europe, Japan, South Korea.]


My point is that none of these leeches spends enough. Not Taiwan, not any of the NATO members. But collectively, the European members of NATO spend several times more than Russia, the primary threat. Whereas Taiwan stands alone, and spends 1/20 of the Chinese budget. Shouldn’t it be spending at Israeli levels, at the very least?

Again, how do you think the prospect of recovering a Chinese-occupied Taiwan, with a 1m strong garrison, in the face of Chinese nuclear bluster, would come off to the average Joe? Doesn’t that kind of put a kink in the idea of an automatic US military response? It’s one thing to ward off the Chinese invaders at sea or in the air, and quite another to have fight them on Taiwan’s shores and in the cities. Taiwanese voters and leadership undoubtedly know this. Which suggests they are willing to fight the Chinese to the last dead American, like so many of our other “allies”.


9 posted on 08/04/2019 3:28:07 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Williams

[And you’re peddling that Democrats will be tougher on China than Trump???

What a crock of unadulterated Red China horsecrap.]


It might come as news to you, but the Democratic Party is the party of trade restrictions. Only since Clinton has that changed. The NAFTA treaty was ratified with a majority of GOP votes and a minority of Democrat votes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders#Trade
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/29/8933825/elizabeth-warren-trade-economic-patriotism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement#Negotiation,_ratification,_and_revision_(1988%E2%80%9394)

There’s a political angle for the Democrats - it was how they got the union vote. For the GOP, free trade has been an article of faith for perhaps the last century. That was how they got the fat cat globalists to pony up campaign cash. I think the principal reason the Democrats are now keeping up with the GOP, campaign cash-wise, is their sudden switch towards free trade, since the Slick Willy era. But Sanders and Warren will be major influences on Democrat policies if they want to get good voter turnout. And that means a turn towards much more restrictive trade policies. Think about it - how are they going to get a $15/hr minimum wage without sky-high unemployment if they don’t impose big time tariffs? With its massive trade surplus, China’s just the low-hanging fruit.


10 posted on 08/04/2019 3:42:57 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Excuse me but now you have us needing to “recover” Taiwan after it’s conquered.

Let’s say they spent nothing on defense? They deserve to be conquered, murdered and imprisoned?

Taiwan is occupying a lot of China’s military capacity, they can control a vital waterway. They are free.

And btw the reason for this propaganda is that Taiwan elected a pro independence party. But according to you they ask are cowards.

The Red Chinese desperately fear a free Taiwan. They always try to win with their arrogant lying mouths.


11 posted on 08/04/2019 3:47:49 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Now I know you’re deluded. You think the Democrats care how they “pay” for a $15 minimum wage???


12 posted on 08/04/2019 3:49:55 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: Williams

[Excuse me but now you have us needing to “recover” Taiwan after it’s conquered.

Let’s say they spent nothing on defense? They deserve to be conquered, murdered and imprisoned?]


Deserves has nothing to do with it. Do the people of Hong Kong deserve to be free? Sure. Will we invade to make Hong Kong free? No.

It’s wonderful that you think we should invade to free Taiwan even if the Chinese manage to overcome its puny defenses (thanks to insufficient defense spending) before we can cobble together a force to ward it off and occupy it with a 1m man garrison. The question is how many Freepers would agree with you, let alone a population that doesn’t even support intervention against a pushover like Maduro in Venezuela.

My projection is that we may or may not intervene to prevent a Chinese invasion, but we will not invade a Chinese-occupied Taiwan for roughly the same reason we chose not reverse the North Vietnamese victory over the South in 1975 - the prospect of large numbers of US casualties. We lost 38,000 dead in Korea. I’d expect similar numbers in the event of a ground invasion.


13 posted on 08/04/2019 3:58:01 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Williams

[Now I know you’re deluded. You think the Democrats care how they “pay” for a $15 minimum wage???]


Yes. White voters know how to count, and they will abandon the Democrats in droves if their personal economic situation deteriorates. And the fat cat globalists currently supporting the Democrats understand that while foreign markets are gravy, the home market remains their most profitable. Can’t afford to kill the golden goose.


14 posted on 08/04/2019 4:00:21 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Sorry but you’re nuts. White voters? Lolol


15 posted on 08/04/2019 4:27:00 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: Williams

[Sorry but you’re nuts. White voters? Lolol]


Virtue-signaling white voters currently pull the lever for the Dems because it seems to cost them very little. When things get tough, they’ll vote GOP. For pretty much the same reason that blacks vote Democrat. Tribal affiliation.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/
[White non-Hispanic voters preferred Trump over Clinton by 21 percentage points (58% to 37%)]

Non-Hispanic whites are 62.2% of the population. The GOP doesn’t need 90% of the white vote to crush the Democrats. 70% is more than enough. And that’s what it gets in much of the South. Democratic policies that result in Carter-like malaise will push that demographic towards the GOP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Sailer#The_%22Sailer_Strategy%22

That’s why the Democrats will need big time tariffs. And not necessarily just against China, either.


16 posted on 08/04/2019 4:40:09 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Everything you wrote was accurate except Democrats don’t give a damn and certainly not about economic realism. They oppose the tariffs.


17 posted on 08/04/2019 4:45:39 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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To: Williams

[Everything you wrote was accurate except Democrats don’t give a damn and certainly not about economic realism. They oppose the tariffs.]


When they win, they’ll memory-hole their opposition and support tariffs. The idea’s not to give the GOP any victories that might help goose employment statistics while a Republican is in the White House. This is not some kind of mystery. It’s why so many countries, democratic or otherwise, have major league tariff and non-tariff walls - to support favored domestic interest groups.

I’m a free trader myself, with an exception for countries with nukes aimed at us (such as China and Russia), and I’ve been following trade policy for decades. There is nothing principled about the current Democrat attachment to free trade - it’s all about campaign cash. Whereas the GOP’s free trade philosophy is a longstanding one, and comes out of the conviction that nothing good can come from doling cash out to favored political constituencies, due to the resulting economic distortions. That is why so many criticized the Trump tariffs - they were free-traders long before Trump came on the scene.

The only reason many now support tariffs in a lukewarm manner is a combo of national security (China, Russia) and political (i.e. blue and, increasingly, white collar votes) concerns. Can’t win on *any* conservative issues if you can’t cobble together electoral majorities.


18 posted on 08/04/2019 5:02:51 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Williams

[Everything you wrote was accurate except Democrats don’t give a damn and certainly not about economic realism.]


People who vote Democrat certainly care about being unemployed. That will give Democratic pols religion about universal tariffs. It’s not that tariffs are a good thing - they encourage featherbedding and waste in general. It’s more tariffs are a short-term fix for unemployment woes, given our large trade deficits with any number of countries.


19 posted on 08/04/2019 5:11:15 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Oh the Democrats will be supporting universal tariffs? Except they don’t.


20 posted on 08/04/2019 6:17:38 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant.)
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