Lots of reasons for cautious optimism here. Blue-collar America supports the blue-collar billionaire.
I am not cautious about this in the least...
Trump won on the backs of blue collar working class... they are not going to abandon him.. in fact, far more will vote for him this time than last because they have SEEN him actually deliver and deliver big.
Knew he was going to take a big segment out of this bloc in 16, and fully expect it to be much bigger in 2020.
There is NO path to the White House for ANY Democrat, short of a black swan event, in 2020.
Just like I accurately predicted Trump was going to take EVERY state in the rust belt, with the exception of IL and MN in 16, my prediction for 2020 is the following:
Trump will take EVERY state he got in 16.
He will take most if not all states he got over 45% of the vote in in 16
He will take the battle to states he got between 40 and 45% in 16 and probably pull a few of those as well.
Absolute HIGH water mark for the Democrats, (regardless of the nominee) is about 15-16 states plus DC.
If they put up a whackadoo, (which is very likely) they may not be able to get 10 states plus DC.
Trump will be re-elected by the largest margin since Reagan, though the actual dynamics of 2020 are lining up more like 1972. The economics are lining up like 1984, but the political dynamics are closer to 1972. There is ZERO path for any Democrat to the White House.
The only question about 2020 is how big are Trumps coattails... I fully expect, unless the GOP screws it up, which is always a possibility, that they will retake the house handily, and increase their Senate margin as well.