Posted on 07/30/2019 6:12:30 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
Thank goodness Trump and FOX have finally brought up what I’ve been saying all week about the sorry state of Baltimore’s schools. If the GOP would stick with improving these ghettos and actually get off the couch to actually show immediate improvement, they will win. Merely throwing money at these cities isn’t going to do the job as that $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ only goes into their politicans’ and community activists’ pockets. SHOW improvement. Challenge the schools today. School starts in a couple weeks. Challenge the parents to make sure their teachers are giving quality education. Challenge the kids to sit their butts in desks rather than the street corners. Challenge them to behave in class and do their homework. Challenge the parents to make sure little Devontre turns in his homework. It’s easy to look at his online classwork. Challenge Devontre not to get LaShondra pregnant. Get positive challenges going as opposed to stupid twitter challenges of dumping water on cops.
Decimation.
Maybe nationally. Not district by district. fieldmarshaldj provided this exhaustive comparison of D and R House candidates.
It ain’t pretty:
Neither of the AZ seats (1st/2nd), CT (2nd/5th), have first-tier challengers, so I didn’t write any blurbs about them.
CA-10, Josh Harder (D) has a huge amount of money $1.6 mil. Ted Howze (R) has $463k, but that’s an uphill climb.
CA-48, Harley Rouda (D) has almost $1.1 mil. He does have a relatively 1st tier challenger in Michelle Steel, a former Board of Equalization member (an elective office), but just $536k at present.
FL-13, Charlie Crist (D) has $784k. Attorney Amanda Makki (R) has just $220k, so I’d rank her as second-tier (addendum: 2 of the Cuban GOP seats taken by the Dems, the 26th & 27th, only the 26th has a candidate with any modest amount of money, Restauranteur Irina Vilarino, with $272k. Ex-Rep. Carlos Curbelo might try for a rematch, but frankly, his voting record was so awful and he was an open borders anti-Trumper who was mocked by the President when he lost last year).
GA-6, Lucy McBath (D) has almost $1.1 mil. Ex-Rep. Karen Handel (R) is seeking a rematch, but has only $448k. Curiously, she doesn’t have the largest GOP warchest, which belongs to Marjorie Greene, a Conservative businesswoman, with $523k. Handel’s weak performance in narrowly winning the 2017 special and then losing to a moonbat doesn’t work in her favor.
IL-14th Lauren Underwood (D) ha almost $1.1 mil. Frequent candidate and present State Sen. Jim Oberweis is running, and can be considered first-tier. He has $416k, but should be able to self-fund (if he fully commits to). Ted Gradel, a businessman, is on his heels with a respectable $305k.
IL-17th, Cheri Bustos (D) has no opponent at present except from the left. This district will go for Trump again, and no excuse for not contesting it. Curiously, the man she defeated in 2012 (one of the 2010 Tea Party class), will be running for Congress again, but this time across the river in Iowa’s 2nd !
*Although not mentioned, as Trump performed poorly here with 43%, the formerly premier GOP 6th district (which it was until Jan), has a freshman Dem with a large warchest of $1mil, Sean Casten. On paper, it would appear that he has a first-tier challenger with recently defeated ex-Lt Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti. But she has just a paltry $100k. In what could be an ugly grudge match, Jeanne Ives just jumped into the race (so no $$ numbers yet). Ives almost defeated the execrable RINO ex-Governor in the primary last year (frankly, I think she did win, but the corrupt Combine likely fixed it for Bruce Rauner). This could be another proxy fight between the Combiner camp and the Reformist camp. The downside is that Casten likely stands to benefit.
*As an aside, in IL-3, though not massively Dem like other Chicago districts, Dan Lipinski is in trouble because he is not pro-infanticide enough and is trailing in fundraising. This might be one instance where if he switched to the GOP, he’d might be able to hold it. The Republican running is desultory with no $$).
IA-1st, Freshman Dem Abby Finkenauer, has $824k. State Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) has $338k (I’d consider her on the line between 1st and 2nd tier). Former Congressman Rod Blum (R) hasn’t said if he’ll seek a rematch.
IA-2nd, Open Loebsack seat. Dem Rita Hart has $280k (she is considered first tier, as she was the Lt Gov nominee last year). Ex-IL Congressman Bobby Schilling is running in this seat (across the river from his old district). At present, he has no $$ listed.
IA-3rd, Freshman Cindy Axne has nearly $1mil. Ex-Congressman David Young is seeking a rematch, but has just under $350k.
*As an aside about IA-4, Rep. Steve King has a paltry $153k. The Establishment is trying to push him aside for State Sen. Randy Feenstra, who has $400k.
KS-3rd, Freshman Sharice Davids has almost $1mil. She has no opponent as of yet.
ME-2nd, Freshman Jared Golden has $523k. Congressman Bruce Poliquin, whose seat was stolen here, has yet to declare for a rematch, so Golden has no opponent yet.
MI-3rd, Turncoat nutter Justin Amash has just $293k. At last report, State Rep. Jim Lower (R) had $201k. Interest in this race however is only beginning, and Republicans are lining up. I still believe Amash will quit and run as the Libertarian for President, so the seat should go back to whichever Republican is nominated.
MI-5th Dem Dan Kildee has $415k. Although this was drawn for a Democrat (his uncle held the seat previously - it last elected a Republican in 1972 when Don Riegle was still serving as one, albeit a Socialist RINO), this is the kind of White working-class district where Trump got a lot of votes. A second-tier Republican is running, but this ought to have a first-tier candidate.
MI-8th, Freshman Elissa Slotkin has almost $1.3 mil (boy these freshman Dems have a lot of $$). This is a Trump district and had been GOP since 2000. The ex-Congressman, Mike Bishop, hasn’t declared for a rematch, so she has no opponent at present.
MI-11th Freshman Haley Stevens also has $1.3 mil. At present, a single desultory GOP opponent is all she has.
MN-2nd Freshman Angie Craig has almost $900k. She has no opponent at present, though fmr. Rep. Jason Lewis might seek a rematch.
MN-7th, Dem incumbent Collin Peterson is one of those who have bedeviled us for almost 3 decades in this solidly GOP seat. Curiously, he won this seat on his 4th(!) try in 1990 over a weak incumbent. He faced pilot/engineer Dave Hughes in both 2016 and 2018, with Hughes getting 47% and 48%, respectively. Hughes is running again, but has almost nothing in funds ($17k). Peterson has $442k. This is a 62% Trump seat, there is simply no excuse for not putting this one away.
NV-3rd, Freshman Susie Lee has $900k. Although former State Treasurer Dan Schwartz is in the race, he was known for his disastrous primary loss against Adam Paul Laxalt. He also has no $$ listed.
NV-4th, Returning Freshman Steven Horsford has $787k. Ex-Assemblyman Jim Marchant has the most amount of money, but still a paltry $118k.
NH-1st, Freshman Chris Pappas has $585k. At present, he has no opponent, but Black Republican Eddie Edwards, who ran in ‘18, is being floated.
NH-2nd, Ann McLane Kuster has $776k. Her ‘18 opponent, Steve Negron, is running again (though has just under $100k).
NJ-2nd, Freshman Jeff Van Drew has $748k. Three Republicans have declared, but no $$ is listed yet.
NJ-3rd, Freshman Andy Kim has over $1.1 mil. At least 10 Republicans are being floated (the ex-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno and 2 ex-Congressmen, Jon Runyan and former incumbent Tom MacArthur), but none has declared.
NJ-5th, Sophomore Josh Gottheimer has a whopping $1.7 mil. Leading in the $$ race is Frank Pallotta, an investment banker (whose name is similar to another NJ Dem, Frank Pallone), but he has just $145k.
NJ-7th, Freshman Tom Malinowski has over $1.1 mil. Leading candidate on the GOP side is Sen. Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr., scion of the Kean family. This was a GOP district from 1957-2019 (last won by the corrupt future Dem Sen. Harrison “Pete” Williams of Abscam infamy in 1954). Kean has not reported any $$ yet.
NJ-11th, Freshman Mikie Sherrill has over $1.1 mil. A whopping 13 Republicans are being floated for this seat which had been GOP from 1985-2019, including former First Lady Mary Pat Christie, but none has declared, yet.
NM-2nd, Freshman Xochitl Torres Small has almost $1.1 mil. She is trying not to vote too moonbat in this GOP district, which is upsetting the radical base. Although Yvette Herrell is headed to a rematch and has $300k, some Republicans in the district feel she isn’t the strongest to take it back and may recruit outside. Ex-Congressman Steve Pearce is also mentioned, but I don’t think he’ll leave his job as state chairman to try again, however useless the position is at present.
NY-3rd, Thomas Suozzi has $538k. This is a targetable Long Island district that was ancestrally GOP (last held by Rick Lazio before he ran for the Senate in 2000 against the Butcheress of Benghazi). Some base Dems think Suozzi is too “right wing” despite his clear left-wing voting and would like to replace him with an AOC clone. No Republicans are running at present.
NY-11th, Freshman Max Rose has a whopping $1.4 million, which he’s going to need to keep this 54% Trump seat. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, the 2017 NYC Mayoral nominee, has a respectable $550k. Ex-Rep. Michael Grimm is pondering a run, but his felony conviction is not a plus. This should be a top take-back, as Rose seemed like a fluke winner.
NY-18th, Sean Maloney has $554k. Although in his 4th term, this also is an ancestral GOP seat and Trump got 49% here. Chele Farley is running and has $266k. The GOP should put in an effort here.
NY-19th, Freshman Antonio Delgado has $1.4 million. This is also a Republican district, but no one has stepped up to run, including ex-Rep. John Faso (who turned out to be a poor candidate, despite having been the former Assembly GOP leader).
NY-22nd, Freshman Anthony Brindisi has $878k. This is the most GOP district in the state held by a Democrat, even more so than Staten Island, at 55%. The Broome County D.A. is running, but he has no money reported as yet. Marc Molinaro, the ‘18 Gubernatorial nominee, is being floated here. No excuse for not getting this seat back.
OH-13th, Tim Ryan (not reported $$ totals). Ryan is sitting in one of the trending Trump White working class districts (which previously sent populist Jim Traficant and last elected a Republican in 1982). This seat should be targeted, but the GOP doesn’t appear to have a top candidate.
OK-5th, Freshman Kendra Horn has almost $1 mil. This is also one of those seats that should never have elected a Democrat (53% Trump), and hasn’t since Conservative Democrat John Jarman in the early ‘70s and he switched to the GOP for his last term (1975-77). Businesswoman Terry Neese has $531k, currently the leader in fundraising, though State Sen. Stephanie Bice has $181k.
OR-4th, Peter DeFazio, who has been in the House since 1987, has always occupied a marginal seat (46% Trump), but has never quite gotten a first-tier challenger. None are stepping up this time, but there is no excuse not to put up a strong nominee.
Pennsylvania — This is the real bitch where the corrupt Demonrat state supreme court explicitly and illegally stole 4 seats outright. I cited 3 where the GOP should try to target, including the 7th, freshman Susan Ellis Wild, who has $576k. Her ‘18 opponent is running again, Dean Browning, and he has $141k. It’s hard to tell what Trump got here exactly, but it has to be close.
PA-8th, Matt Cartwright should also be a target, he has $559k. This is a more Republican seat than he previously occupied. Luzerne County D.A. Stefanie Salavantis is being floated as a potential opponent.
PA-17th, Conor Lamb should be another target. He lucked out in winning a special election against a weak Republican in the prior GOP 18th seat. He won by 12.5% in this new 17th. He has $481k. His opponent, Scott Timko, is a businessman, but appears 2nd tier with less than $15k.
SC-1st, Freshman Joe Cunningham has over $1.245 million to try to keep this 54% Trump seat. He was the first Dem to win since 1978, and should not have won in the first place (helped in no small part by the ugly primary battle between Matt Sanford, whom I once held up as a premier candidate for President, and who has now gone fully NeverTrumper retard, and Katie Arrington, who was in a serious accident and hampered her ability to campaign). Kathy Landing, a Mt. Pleasant Councilwoman, has the most $$ at present, $279k, but there are several candidates in the race. Arrington is a potential for a rematch, but she hasn’t declared.
TX-7th, Freshman Lizzie Fletcher has almost $1.1 million. She was the first Dem to sit in this formerly premier hyper-GOP seat that was initially created in 1966 (the GHW Bush seat). This was one of the suburban seats where the nutters went for Hillary narrowly. Leading the pack in the $$ game is veteran and Mortgage Loan Originator Wesley Hunt, who has $514k. A member of the Bush family, Pierce Bush, a grandson of GHW, is being floated here, though I think the family has done quite enough damage.
TX-32nd, Freshman Colin Allred has over $1.1 million. Another GOP seat that went for Hillary. Although a number of Republicans are considering running (including former incumbent Pete Sessions, who was no prize), pro-Trump activist Tania Burgess is the only one running, but has no money (just $8k).
UT-4th, Freshman Ben McAdams has $830k. This is a heavily GOP seat ordinarily, but Mia Love, the predecessor, had difficulty holding it (won twice, lost twice), and was not a strong supporter of the President. State GOP activist Kathleen Anderson is the only declared candidate at present, but reported no money. Love might run again, but I can’t see her being able to win in the primary convention where she made such a splash back in 2012.
VA-2nd, Freshman Elaine Luria has $858k. Predecessor Scott Taylor, who was also just a freshman, didn’t get a handle on the seat, and isn’t well-regarded by Conservatives. He has decided to run against Sen. Mark Warner next year instead. As a result, no Republicans are being floated at present for this Trump seat.
VA-7th, Freshman Abigail Spanberger has almost $1.1 million. This is also a Trump district that hadn’t elected a Democrat since 1978 (but a lot of the Cantor RINOs obviously went for her to take out Conservative Dave Brat). Brat won’t be seeking a rematch, and is now at Liberty University. 2 Republicans have declared, with Tina Ramirez, a Conservative activist, having $100k. Others may jump in.
WA-8th, Freshman Kim Schrier has almost $1.1 million. This had been a GOP seat since its creation in 1982 and should’ve gone to Dino Rossi. Keith Swank is the only Republican running at present, and he has 505 bucks (yup 505 dollars). Rossi doesn’t appear to want to run again.
WI-3rd, Ron Kind has just $461k and has been in the seat since 1997. The seat went for Trump, but no Republicans are running as of yet. No excuse for not getting a first-tier candidate here.
An addendum to the CA races:
Doug LaMalfa (1st) is trailing his ‘18 Dem opponent in fundraising.
Tom McClintock (4th) is also trailing in fundraising to a new Dem challenger.
Paul Cook (8th) is virtually tied with a Dem with his fundraising.
Devin Nunes (22nd) and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (23rd) are both well-funded and each sitting on over $3 mil+ warchests.
Ken Calvert (42nd) has $435k. Dems badly trailing in fundraising.
Duncan Duane Hunter (50th) has only $588k. The grandson of the Munich massacre, Ammar Campa-Najjar, has outraised him with $720k. Another Republican, Larry Wilske, has $377k, though he has lost 2 prior races.
Although not on my prior list, Young Kim (R) has $409k to incumbent Dem Gil Cisneros $570k in the 39th. This was Ed Royce’s district before January this year.
Also unlikely to flip GOP, but Republican Omar Navarro has $244k to Mad Maxine Waters’ anemic $351k.
Freshman Dem Katie Porter in the 45th (previously reliably GOP from 1943-2019, but Trump got below 45%, 44.4% to be precise, so wasn’t on the prior list) has $1.4 million. Don Sedgwick, a Laguna Hills Councilman, has the most money of the Republicans, but still trailing badly with $621k.
See my post above, courtesy of fieldmarshaldj on a case by case basis in House races as to how we’re getting creamed.
The problem with relying on the NATIONAL level is that they pour money into Comstock and Hoffman, very difficult races to win, blowing almost $20m on those two losing races, where $ might have made a big difference in other races. The point is, the national $ is NOT well spent.
This kind of Republican Congressman is the type that needs to leave. He is gutless. He wants the liberal press to like him and he is probably just a RINO. Good riddance!
Larry reposted my private analysis to him on House races as of about 10 days ago in post #43.
The elections are over a year away, so I wouldn’t fret too much about incumbent RATs having more money in the bank than GOP challengers who only announced a month or two ago. We need to get strong challengers who know how to run and win; the money will come in time.
Yes, but the Dems are wisely putting a lot of money into those seats they won from the GOP. Many of them already have near or above $1 million each. Conversely, they could literally put next to nothing in their heavy Dem districts and the incumbents need not worry that they have a chance of losing.
I pointed out to Larry that the most GOP districts in the country could, under the right circumstances, elect a Democrat. Conversely, virtually every heavily Dem district could have a GOP billionaire running willing to spend whatever it takes, and they have no chance to win.
Having reviewed those seats one by one, I was not very impressed with the bulk of the candidates running to take back GOP seats, and even less impressed at the $$ they have. We should be recruiting top-notch first-tier challengers (who can heavily fundraise or self-fund), but so many are second-tier or even desultory challengers (or worse, none at all). If they’re not raising big $$ at this point, they’re going to have a poor shot at winning and better hope that Trump carries them across somehow.
ME-2nd, Freshman Jared Golden has $523k. Congressman Bruce Poliquin, whose seat was stolen here, has yet to declare for a rematch, so Golden has no opponent yet.
FYI, for your list, Eric Brakey filed today
Portland Press Herald Online
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Eric Brakey files to challenge Rep. Golden in 2nd Congressional District
. . .
Brakey, a 30-year-old former state senator from Auburn, said Friday he has raised more than $100,000 toward the campaign to take on U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a first-term Democrat from Lewiston.
. . .
Brakey gave up his state Senate seat last year to run against incumbent U.S. Sen. Angus King, an independent. Brakey lost a three-way race by a wide margin as King cruised to a second term in the Senate.
Roberts isnt doing that so no worries there
Thanks fieldmarshaldj.
There have been some recruitment failures (and some successes). And yes money is important.
But the fact remains the map still favors us, IF Trump is winning he’ll carry the majority of districts. There is little reason to expect very many of them will split there tickets. I have trouble envisioning Trump winning and not bringing at least a narrow majority, this is not 1988.
Other than sadly Bustos (she’s the phocking DCCC chair, target that biznitch!) seat, which was a very narrow Trump win that may not be repeated, and Ron Kind who doesn’t have a challenger there aren’t many 2016 Trump seats that I would write off.
As for the premise of this article, retirements, they were vastly overstated as a reason for losing the House in 2018. We lost 30 GD incumbents. While we likely would have held a few of the open seats we lost if the incumbents had run again, we’d have lost plenty, the only certain one hold can point to would have been NM-2, which was lost due to a failed run for higher office rather than a straight retirement and is an almost certain 2020 gain back. Maybe we’d have 5 more seats if no one had retired in 2018. In some cases we’d have done better and probably held the seat with a retirement, I’m looking at Dan Donovan and Mia “No” Love.
So I’m not worried at all about people like Pete Olson retiring, to the extent his district is competitive, it’s competitive whether he’s running or not (after all he a closeish call). Unless the rat Pres nominee is carrying it that’s not a seat we’re gonna lose.
If Mike Fitzpatrick retired I’d be worried about his seat, but I’m worried about it anyway, and there aren’t many of those seats left.
For all there lofty talk of targeting more GOP seats, the fact is there aren’t many GOP seats that are actually in danger unless you imagine them doing BETTER than in 2018, they are playing defense.
The Republicans are betting the bank that he won't. Better hope they're right.
He wont so thats not an issue
Interesting analysis, Impy. Have to say.
Thanks!
Hope is not a strategy.
Track record speaks for itself no worries
Track record? Roberts? He's all over the place. He took so much flack on his last vote it wouldn't surprise me a bit if he struck it down this time.
No wonder nothing was done when the republicans were in the majority, I had no idea that we had so MANY who were not really republican nor ...conservative. Get rid of them. Let’s go back to our roots and elect those who truly believe in the Constitution and the rule of law.
Be careful to vote for the real patriot this time.
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