I think Trump’s re-election is no sure thing. I don’t dismiss this forecast but it doesn’t worry me either. Voting wins elections, not predictions.
I did a quick web search on this prof and I could not find any info on how long she’s been using this forecasting model. If you’re telling me she correctly predicted ONE election, and not a presidential at that, then I’m not very impressed.
Consider that he barely won in states that usually go dem, plus the dem excitement level is thru the roof. They HATE trump. The left wing is totally energized against trump. They dont care who the dem candidate is they are against trump. THAT is what this woman is saying when she says her study shows every one but a total nut will beat him. She is also saying some voters are tired of all the drama, the tweets, the judges ruling against him, the cabinet turnover, basically the overall level of chaos that trump thrives on but many are insecure about.
The reason her study should be taken seriously is that the anti trump movement by dems, leftists, media, never trumpers, is unanimous. All trump has in his corner is his base, a minority of voters. Hopefully most independents + some dems who are apolitical will join his voters.
Dont mistake the enthusiasm for trump among his base as being a majority. It isn’t. Trumps campaign people hve a. Short window to suceed.