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>>The Iranian regime is on the ropes. They don’t want the only other person in the equation to be Trump....they lose.

>>They want to freak out Europe, Japan and Korea over the threat of the strait being closed. (Iran can do it, with 1,000s of truck-mounted Chinese Silkworm and other missiles.)

>>They perceive that the very real risk of war, and closure of the strait, will cause our allies to put incredible pressure on Trump to call of the dogs, to save the world economy.

If the Iranian regime is on the ropes, and I don't disagree with you by the way - the wars in Syria and Yemen have taken a heavy toll on them, as has the fluctuation in oil prices, the last thing somebody on the ropes does is stand up in front of the heavyweight champion and say "come at me!"

Here's the problem: Iran remembers Operation Preying Mantis, which was just over 30 years ago. We sunk an Iranian frigate, a bunch of smaller Iranian frigates, destroyed a couple of oil drilling platforms the Iranian Navy was using, all because of Iranian mines in the Gulf.

If Iran is caught trying to sink Japanese, Norwegian, etc. tankers, they run the very real risk of complete economic isolation (assuming the Russians don't come to their defense - more on that in a moment). That kind of isolation will bring the Iranian government down. And that's before the US destroys the Iranian military, albeit at a cost (which we are not prepared to pay).You can't do something that wrecks the economy, wrecks the military, and puts millions in the streets, and then think you will survive. Iran gains nothing in attacking other nations' tankers in order to goad us into a war.

You know who gains though? Saudi Arabia. They gain from a rise in oil prices, and more importantly, if we tie up a significant portion of Iran's naval and aerial assets, and by tie up, I mean we put them on the bottom of the Gulf, then Saudi Arabia has a truly free hand to run rampant through Yemen and to do whatever they please. And the Saudis are very good at getting other countries to fight their battles. Say what you want about them, but they are very good at it.

Guess who else benefits though? Russia. Putin would love to see the US involved in another Middle Eastern quagmire - Putin loves to see the US get mired down in chaos - it's still stunning to me how many idiots think the Russians are our friends, when the Cold War never ended for Putin. It would also would push Iran, Syria, and a few other countries even more firmly into Russia's hands. All those bills the Syrians and Iranians were running up during the fight against ISIS/etc. will come due. Putin's oligarch buddies, his personal bank accounts, and the Russian treasury would also benefit from an increase in oil prices. And that's before we get into Russian military sales to replace all of that hardware that we destroy. And the Iranians will pay for it with oil that passes through the hands of the Russia - the US government has already discussed the fact that the Russians facilitate the sale of Iranian and Syrian oil.

I don't know who benefits more from us getting into a shooting match with the Iranians - the Saudis or Russians are pretty much tied, with Israel coming in a distant third (and no, I don't think they did it - they would have a much more competent false flag operation). Iran would be at the bottom of that list.