Posted on 06/04/2019 10:10:47 PM PDT by OddLane
Last Saturday’s election result was a bolt from the blue, astounding commentators, pollsters and I suspect Scott Morrison. As with Brexit and Donald Trump’s election, there was an unexpected and unobserved shift in sentiment that was somehow missed by the opinion polls. But what was it? How come, in a variety of electorates across the developed Western world, we are seeing such “black swan” events, happenings that defy all expectations and can be rationalised only in hindsight?
There is a growing body of research and theorising about this. One of the most important is the work of British scholars Roger Eatwell and Matthew Goodwin set out in their recent book National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy.
Eatwell and Goodwin focus mainly on continental Europe, seeking to explain the overnight rise of what they term “nationalist-populist” parties in a variety of countries, and the corresponding sharp declines in support for traditional centre-left parties. Typically such parties derive their main support from the centre-left’s traditional working-class base, especially in declining industrial regions...
(Excerpt) Read more at theaustralian.com.au ...
If anyone could post a tl:dr from behind the paywall that would be great, because it looks like an interesting article.
About the twelfth post on the page, posted by Belle.
So how do we explain the consistent failure of the pollsters to pick this up? The answer seems to be that the actual concerns of “people like me” are often in strong opposition to the prevailing elite zeitgeist, including concerns about how their communities are being affected by uncontrolled immigration and the growing presence of Islam, the effect of globalisation and climate change policies on traditional occupations, and in Europe the sense of having their lives regulated by remote, unaccountable bureaucracies in Brussels.
The reality is, many people feel intimidated. In Britain, according to a poll conducted by YouGov, about a third of people “believe they cannot speak freely on controversial subjects such as immigration and religion for fear they may be criticised, lose their job or be prosecuted”.
Thank God for the privacy of the voting booth.
When conservatives are routinely vilified or fired (see Fort Worth teacher) for expressing their opinion, even with the expectation of privacy, is it any wonder that they are not honest with pollsters?
The only place some may feel safe with expressing political views is at the ballot box. So the left wants to dilute the power of the ballot by getting felons, illegals, children, etc. to vote at least once without proper ID. With recounts until they get the result they want.
The Brit “scholar” says it’s against “liberal democracy”? The left has co-opted the term “liberal”, which once meant “for liberty”. In Australia, the Liberal Party is more conservative than their opposition.
The full article was available when I posted the link.
:(
The US is actually worse off on the illegal immigrant issue than most of Europe which is why the media tries like Hell to keep the focus off of the US and on Europe.
The Elephant In The Room in the US is waking up, too, and the idiot globalists here are still pushing as hard as they can on all their goals. Throughout history, those who rule through manipulation and hide that fact from the majority always overplay their hand and get smacked down hard.
JMHo
Wrong. We want to preserve liberal democracy from the identitarian socialist fascists seeking to destroy it.
Because polling is a scam. It is intended to shape public opinion, not measure it.
There is a virtual Third Party in every Western “democracy” now.
It is unorganized and invisible, except on Election Day. It’s core premises are social conservatism including nationalism and socialist economics. It wins about 15-30% of the vote, and is beginning to develop structure in some places (Brexit Party).
It’s the future, because neoliberalism and globalism (the Uniparty) are destroying fundamental things the people value.
Always lie when participating in “opinion” poll.
You think you get in my head, and think you get out of it alive..?
These people are professional liars, they deserve mutual consideration.
Wait till Canada breaks up along the same political fault line. They are taxing the base resources necessary for human survival, at unacceptable rate.
Great link and article! Thanks!
I googled it and got it - it is good
Well i just checked the link i posted and it’s no dice. But I just googled the title and found a link that was open. I posted that link but it didn’t allow it on this forum....
....
One of the most striking results cited by the authors is Europe-wide polling that shows very high proportions of the population saying the mainstream parties are indifferent to the concerns of “people like me”, being more preoccupied with the ideological obsessions of privileged elites. Unsurprisingly, this sentiment is strongest in France, home of the “yellow vest” movement, with 68 per cent agreeing.
....
So how do we explain the consistent failure of the pollsters to pick this up? The answer seems to be that the actual concerns of “people like me” are often in strong opposition to the prevailing elite zeitgeist, including concerns about how their communities are being affected by uncontrolled immigration and the growing presence of Islam, the effect of globalisation and climate change policies on traditional occupations, and in Europe the sense of having their lives regulated by remote, unaccountable bureaucracies in Brussels.
...
People are fed up with political correctness. We don’t know who has decided what can be said, hence President Trump who could not be imagined as electable confounds the powers who think they control thought are dumbfounded because they are out of touch with average people.
“So how do we explain the consistent failure of the pollsters to pick this up?“
Because, as another poster said, opinion polls are no longer designed to measure public opinion but to shape it.
L
Truth hits like a lightning bolt! You just cleared it up for me better than anyone else has so far.
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