ASX rally: Market jumps, big banks surge on Coalition victory in federal election (Australia)

This is behind a paywall, but I'm sharing it because somebody (and I will have to go back and check who it was) asked how the Australian markets would react to the conservative election win - and well, here we are.

What is their stance on energy? Are they going to at least slow down the global rush to become all renewable all the time. (or at least during the day)

Maybe the new government can send Ambassador Downer over here to answer some questions.

A great deal of this election was fought on ‘climate change’ - Labor had massive policies on cutting emissions, stopping coal mining, and forcing renewables. The coalition opposed them although it does support some much smaller changes.

It’s the same government.

And Alexander Downer was Australia’s longest serving Foreign Minister, John Howard’s Foreign Minister, and a former leader of the party that is now in government.

This conspiracy theory about him that is circulating in the United States is frankly, utterly ridiculous.

What is the theory?

The one that I think is nonsense is that somehow Alexander Downer did something underhanded or shifty - some take it even further to suggest he’s some sort of spy.

What happened is that George Papadopolous asked to meet Alexander Downer, and Downer agreed - he was at the time Australia’s High Commissioner (Ambassador functionally - Commonwealth realms exchange High Commissioners rather than Ambassadors) to the UK, and somebody related to the campaign of somebody might be the next US President asked for an informal meeting with him - why would he say no?

So they had the meeting and at the meeting Papadopolous told Downer that he thought the Russians might be spying on Hilary Clinton.

Downer was Australia’s Foreign Minister from 1996 until 2007 - the equivalent of your Secretary of State, more or less - he has just been told that the Russians may be spying on a former US Secretary of State.

Of course, he made a report of that to Canberra - he would have been utterly failing in his duty not to. A former senior figure in the US government is being spied on by the Russians? Of course, you report that - I’ve worked as a minor diplomat for Australia myself (I was a military/protocol attache of sorts) and if something like this came to my attention, I’d have reported it ASAP.

Nothing suspicious or wrong about that.

Message gets to Canberra. Again, of course, somebody at DFAT decided to pass this information onto the US government. Again, that’s the normal act of an ally who receives information about a security threat in an allied country. It’s an intelligence matter, so the report would go to that nation’s counter intelligence agency - which for the US, is the FBI.

Again, nothing suspicious. Nothing wrong.

But some people seem to want to spin this into some suggestion that Downer was part of some conspiracy against Donald Trump, or part of some deep intelligence operation or something.

He wasn’t. What he did was simply normal diplomatic activity with the intention of providing assistance to a friendly government.

Great explanation Thanks! How did Papadopolous learn the Russians were spying on the beast??

What happened is that George Papadopolous asked to meet Alexander Downer, and Downer agreed - he was at the time Australia’s High Commissioner (Ambassador functionally - Commonwealth realms exchange High Commissioners rather than Ambassadors) to the UK, and somebody related to the campaign of somebody might be the next US President asked for an informal meeting with him - why would he say no?

The reporting I have read makes it unclear who asked to meet whom. It was supposedly a "chance" meeting. It could easily have been a set up by those trying to ensnare Papadopolous and the Trump campaign. This report is that Downer asked to arrange the meeting, after Downer was asked by Erika Thompson,

Papadopoulous says he never told Downer about the Hillary emails. Downer confirms there was no mention of emails. Downer reported that Papadopoulous said someting about the Russians having dirt on Hillary.

The reporting of the event by Alexander Downer was used by the Mueller investigation to fuel speculation that President Trump had some sort of connection to the Russians.

The information Papadopolous supposedly told Downer was some rumor that Russians had dirt on Hillary, that he was fed by Mifsud a month or so earlier.

It does not help that Alexander Downer had ties to the Clintons, where the Australian government transferred $10,000,000 to an entity of the Clinton Foundation, that did essentially little or nothing.

If that is a conspiracy theory, so be it.

As for being a "spy" if a country's top diplomat isn't tied into the country's intelligence service, he is not doing his job.

Downer admits he reported the information as part of the five-eyes information sharing network.

Downer may well have been used by others.

The reporting I have read makes it unclear who asked to meet whom. It was supposedly a "chance" meeting. It could easily have been a set up by those trying to ensnare Papadopolous and the Trump campaign. This report is that Downer asked to arrange the meeting, after Downer was asked by Erika Thompson

Downer says Papadopolous asked for the meeting and frankly I believe him for a number of reasons.

Firstly, I know Alexander Downer - not well, but we do know each other. Everything I know about him says he's a man of fundamental integrity.

Secondly, consider the two people we are talking about and their relative importance. The Honourable His Excellency Alexander Downer, Companion of the Order of Australia, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, High Commissioner of the Commonwealth of Australia to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, former Foreign Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia (and it's longest ever serving Foreign Minister at that) versus Mister George Papadopoulos, a twenty nine year old unpaid adviser to Donald Trump who was front runner for the Republican Nomination to the US Presidency.

Who is more likely to have asked for a chance to meet the other?

Thirdly - from my reading, the article you've shared basically seems to me to confirm what I have heard that it was Papadopoulous who sought the meeting - Papadopopoulos met Thompson through Cantor, and asked Thompson if she could set up a meeting with Downer - she did and Downer was interested enough (after all, we are talking about somebody who though not that important, was in contact with a man who realistically had a chance to become US President in less than a year) to agree.

It does not help that Alexander Downer had ties to the Clintons, where the Australian government transferred $10,000,000 to an entity of the Clinton Foundation, that did essentially little or nothing.

Again, this is making a mountain out a molehill.

To the best of my knowledge, Alexander Downer as no ties to the Clintons beyond the fact that as Foreign Minister at the tail end of the Clinton presidency, he would have had some diplomatic contact. I couldn't rule out them having some social contact at some point either (I don't know Downer well enough, and I certainly don't know the Clintons at all) but it would surprise me - but the relationship to the Clinton Foundation you mention is nothing more than the Australian Government directing some of the significant amount of aid money we distribute to an aid organisation via AusAid - now something to understand about that is that AusAid was deliberately and by design, an independent organisation which was not under direct control of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade - so Alexander Downer wouldn't have had any influence over that donation anyway.

As for being a "spy" if a country's top diplomat isn't tied into the country's intelligence service, he is not doing his job.

To an extent, that is true of any diplomat. But to me, that type of normal interaction is nothing like what certain people are alleging here, which is that Downer somehow acted inappropriately.

Downer admits he reported the information as part of the five-eyes information sharing network.

Yes. And that's exactly what I am saying. He did exactly what any senior Australian diplomat would do if given information that an adversary (and though we want good relationships with them, they are an adversary if not an enemy) was potentially engaged in espionage related activity against a friendly government - that is, report it to home office, with the expectation, home office is likely to report it to that friendly nation's counter intelligence people.

I'm not saying this didn't happen. I'm saying there's nothing nefarious in it, and the suggestion that Downer should be directed to answer questions about is, in my view, mostly based on what are ridiculous conspiracy theories that he was part of some plot to get Donald Trump.

In actual fact, Alexander Downer admires most of what the Trump administration is doing. I think it's fair to say, he thinks Donald Trump would be better off if he stayed off twitter - but he's no Trump enemy. He's a conservative through and through - as I've said, he was John Howard's Foreign Minister, one of the most important parts of Australia's most successful conservative government in thirty years. He has his faults - he's a terrible snob who I would probably say feels Trump is rather vulgar in some ways, but politically speaking - pretty much on the same side at least on big issues.

You’d have to ask Papadopoulous that, I think.

Downer says Papadopolous asked for the meeting and frankly I believe him for a number of reasons.

That is not what I read. Maybe there is a direct quote somewhere I missed. What I read is that Downer was informed that there was a chance to meet Papadopolous and Papadopolous was informed there was a chance to meet Downer.

Exactly because of the disparity of status you mention, it seems highly unlikely that Papadopolous directly asked Downer for a meeting. It is much more likely there were intermediaries, and that opens up the possibility for much mischief.

It seems highly probable that Downer was used to impart "gravitas" to the idea that Trump had some kind of Russian connection.

Clearly, there was nothing to it.

Just as clearly, Trump's enemies used it as a way to gin up the Muller investigation.

it seems highly unlikely that Papadopolous directly asked Downer for a meeting. It is much more likely there were intermediaries, and that opens up the possibility for much mischief.

Correct, he didn't ask directly.

Papadopoulous knew Eric Canter, who worked at the Israeli Embassy. Cantor's girlfriend Erica Thompson worked at the Australian High Commission.

Cantor introduced them and when Papadopoulous found out where she worked, asked if she could arrange for him to meet Alex Downer, telling her he worked for Donald Trump (I have heard that he specifically said he arranged meetings between Trump and VIPs, but I've only heard that from one source so I'm not sure if that bit is true). She said she'd ask, and she did. Downer agreed based on the fact that Papadopoulous was connected to Donald Trump and so even though he was quite junior, he wasn't a waste of time.