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Will a Growing Economy Reelect President Trump?
Townhall.com ^ | May 9, 2019 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 05/09/2019 10:18:19 AM PDT by Kaslin

When it comes to the economy, 37% of voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats. A ScottRasmussen.com survey found that 26% hold the opposite view and trust the Democrats more. The rest either don't trust either party (18%), trust both equally (10%) or are not sure (9%).

On the one hand, these numbers aren't all that surprising. In monthly polls dating back to last summer, the Republicans have always been trusted more than Democrats on the economy. But the advantage may be growing.

The 11-point advantage recorded is up from 4 points a month ago. This month's total also represents the largest GOP lead yet measured in ScottRasmussen.com polls.

It comes at a time when confidence is growing in the economy itself. Fifty-five percent of voters now rate the economy as good or excellent. The latest Job Creators Network/ScottRasmussen.com Weekly Pulse survey shows that just 12% say it's in poor shape.

On top of that, 39% say the economy is getting better, while only 20% think it's getting worse.

On a personal level, 51% of American adults rate their own finances as good or excellent, while just 15% are in poor shape. Twenty-eight percent say their own financial situation is improving, while 17% say the opposite.

And in terms of their community, 49% say firms are more likely to be hiring than laying people off. Just 18% see more layoffs in their area.

Put it all together and Americans haven't been this optimistic about the economy since before the 2018 elections. Confidence softened a bit after Democrats won control of the House and then fell more sharply during the partial government shutdown. But ever since the shutdown ended, confidence has returned and may be gaining momentum.

Naturally, there is a partisan interpretation of what's going on economically. By an 82% to 3% margin, Republicans believe the economy is getting better. Independent voters aren't as convinced, but they still agree by a 35% to 25% margin.

Democrats, on the other hand, see something different entirely. Half (47%) think the economy is staying about the same, and 28% believe it's getting worse. Just 18% of those in Nancy Pelosi's party believe the economy is improving.

Those partisan attitudes put the Democrats out of sync with the rest of the nation as they are working to select a presidential nominee. Perhaps they will be proven right and the economy will go south by November 2020. If that happens, the Democrats are very likely to win the White House and even pick up some Senate seats.

But what if the economy remains strong? So far, the growing economic confidence has not boosted President Donald Trump or the Republican Party. The president's job approval rating has held steady around 46% in more than three months of daily updates. And the generic congressional ballot has been nearly as stable, showing the Democrats with about a 6-point advantage.

Why hasn't the stronger economy boosted the president's numbers?

It is possible that opinions about President Trump are so hardened that nothing will change them. However, it often takes time before growing economic confidence translates into political benefits for the party in power. If that's the case, the president's ratings should start to inch up this fall.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: presidenttrump

1 posted on 05/09/2019 10:18:19 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

I liked it better when our lord and master Obama was in charge and I did not have to get up and go to a good paying job each day.


2 posted on 05/09/2019 10:20:06 AM PDT by 17th Miss Regt
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To: Kaslin

My only worry is that the economy is peaking too soon.


3 posted on 05/09/2019 10:23:28 AM PDT by TangledUpInBlue
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To: Kaslin

Is that a rhetorical question?


4 posted on 05/09/2019 10:25:20 AM PDT by SMARTY ("Nobility is defined by the demands it makes on us - by obligations, not by rights".)
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To: Kaslin
Democrats, on the other hand, see something different entirely.

Nooooo!!! Really?!

5 posted on 05/09/2019 10:35:43 AM PDT by workerbee (America finally has an American president again.)
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To: TangledUpInBlue

I agree.

Personally, if the markets and the real economy takes a well-deserved breather for about a year (pay back some debt) I think it will be better poised to expand smartly going into the November elections.

Everyone is in debt up to their eyeballs - the consumer, corporations, states, and Federal government. Unless they plan some “debt jubilee” in the future, it’s best to get those balances down first.


6 posted on 05/09/2019 10:37:04 AM PDT by Paulie (America without Christ is like a Chemistry book without the periodic table.)
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To: Kaslin

Not by itself. There are too many forces even within his own party that want to bring him down. Even many GOP leaders hate him as much as any Democrat.

Best thing trump has done is he’s exposed these frauds in DC and in the media. Our government is clearly not working in our interests. And hopefully Americans are waking up to that fact. But it’s a populace that the Dems have been brainwashing for decades so who knows. Too many people want to give socialism a shot. The youth are totally indoctrinated.


7 posted on 05/09/2019 10:39:01 AM PDT by david1292
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To: Kaslin

No, a brave and tenacious leader, unencumbered with the dishonesty Washington just refuses to accept .... Would make Trump emporer if we could.


8 posted on 05/09/2019 10:42:34 AM PDT by knarf (I say things that are true, I have no proof, but they're true)
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To: Paulie

So you’re postulating that people will need to liquidate gains/profits in stocks in order to pay down debt?


9 posted on 05/09/2019 10:45:46 AM PDT by TangledUpInBlue
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To: Kaslin

Three things are essential to both President Trump being reelected, and congress being both Republican and more conservative.

1) President Trump must hit Democrat criminals *hard* and fast. NOT investigations but federal indictments. Only limited offers of “upgrade immunity” to lesser functionaries, that is, “Unless you turn against someone worth more than you, and *they* go to prison, then YOU will go to prison.”

These indictments must happen soon and hard, to impact the next elections. Trials should be ongoing or over within three months of the election. At times dozens of the Democrat leaders and elected officials and corrupt bureaucrats must be undergoing criminal trial.

2) President Trump must hit election fraud by Democrats with both barrels. Ballot harvesting, voting illegals and the dead, turning up thousands of “lost” ballots, all this CRAP must end and anyone doing it put in prison.

AND he must immediately challenge that blue state bulldada about requiring tax returns to be put on their ballot. That has to be challenged IMMEDIATELY.

3) Republican candidates need to have their feet held to the fire. Either they agree in writing to support the conservative agenda, or they are cut off from future election funding from the party.

The mitigating thing here is a “three strikes” or similar rule, in which they can have a ‘conscience vote’ against something the party majority leader wants three times in two years. Any more than that and they lose their funding. But they must pay back for their conscience vote by giving other specified support.


10 posted on 05/09/2019 11:00:25 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy ("Desperate swarm sewage drains for water..." Venezuelans or D.C. Swamp denizens?)
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To: TangledUpInBlue

No. Not sure how you came to that conclusion.

There are other means of cash flow to pay down debt as you know. Income from a job, interest/dividends, etc.

Selling assets is also a possibility of course, although it doesn’t have to be stocks.

The point is high debt is putting a drag on the real economy.


11 posted on 05/09/2019 11:13:14 AM PDT by Paulie (America without Christ is like a Chemistry book without the periodic table.)
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To: Kaslin

Trump can’t win on the economy alone — the Democrats are practiced at bad-mouthing Republican economies and telling the envious that the wrong people are prospering. Fortunately, Trump has lots of other great issues, if only he will start talking about them rather than responding to Democrat nonsense.


12 posted on 05/09/2019 11:16:07 AM PDT by Socon-Econ (adical Islam,)
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To: Kaslin

Yes, yes it will.


13 posted on 05/09/2019 11:16:33 AM PDT by Ken H (2019 => The House of Representin')
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To: 17th Miss Regt
I never ate as well as I did as when we were on food stamps. It was something like $365 per month for a household of two. Of course, all of that went away when I won my hearing against a crooked company who fired me in order to steal my accumulated vacation and I qualified for unemployment.

A week later, Trump won the election. Less than a month after he took office, I had a full-time job which paid better. The crooks ended up having to hire two people to replace me, so their theft didn't exactly work out as planned.

14 posted on 05/09/2019 11:21:11 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (The politicized state destroys all aspects of civil society, human kindness and private charity.)
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To: Kaslin

Not re-electing Trump in 2020 is like committing national suicide.


15 posted on 05/09/2019 11:38:44 AM PDT by 353FMG
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To: 353FMG

And the electorate is poised to do just that. The fact we are even having a national debate on socialism is enough to be gravely concerned for this country’s future.


16 posted on 05/09/2019 11:45:29 AM PDT by david1292
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To: 17th Miss Regt

A growing economy would elect Trump again if it were up to the legal voters voting legally. It won’t be. All the major cities with Democrat administrations will produce enough votes this time around to ensure that their states will vote SocialDemocrat.Trump’s re-election depends on preventing fraud that could equal 10 per cent of the total vote in the Republican states that have those cities and 20 or more percent elsewhere.


17 posted on 05/09/2019 1:33:32 PM PDT by arthurus (fbbmm)
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To: david1292

Illegal aliens will vote in huge numbers in 2020.


18 posted on 05/09/2019 1:34:43 PM PDT by arthurus (fbbmmb)
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To: Kaslin

Commodity markets are not showing bull signs.

A trade war with China is going to put things in a tizzy.


19 posted on 05/09/2019 4:40:40 PM PDT by redgolum
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