What would happen if Iran sunk a dozen ships in the Strait of Hormuz?
Instant coalition would take out Iranian leadership. Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar depend on that traffic, and Japan, Korea, Singapore and China need the oil through there. With the US Fifth Fleet nearby, nobody’s going to bend over for the mullahs.
It would not be easy to block a two-mile wide shipping lane for very long. The first attacks on ships there would be over in a couple hours.
“What would happen if Iran sunk a dozen ships in the Strait of Hormuz?”
That is a scenario that the US military has been deliberately planning for, for decades.
“What would happen?”
I would anticipate an ass-kicking of some type.
There are likely response options of various sizes. Their regular Military (Navy and Air Force) could lose some serious capability in a large scale response. Revolutionary Guards anti-ship missiles would likely be targeted, as well as their mine laying capability - whatever was used to sink ships would likely be taken away. It would be a great excuse to blow up Bandar Abbas, where the bulk of their container traffic passes, which would choke their economy significantly.
If we were to go high intensity with Iran, our troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria would need to button up real tight, because Iran has a lot of surrogates there. They might activate some sleeper terrorist cells in the West. If they went too far, the regime would be decapitated.
I doubt they would get around to sinking their twelfth ship to make a dozen, before they found themselves with their hands full of kinetic response.
What would happen if Iran sunk the Lincoln? It’s a possibility.