Do Republicans have a chance in NM?
I don't know. Tina Smith won her race by over 10 points in 2016. And while people were cheered by the fact that the GOP took two congressional seats away from the Republicans it can't be ignored that the Democrats, in turn, took two Congressional seats away from the Republicans in the same election. And while it's true that Trump came within about 45,000 votes of taking the state, it's also true that the Democrat vote in 2016 was down about 180,00 votes from 2012 while Trump took about the same number of votes Romney did. So I'd say that Minnesota is an iffy pick-up for both Trump and whoever runs against Smith at best.