Sorry Rusty. I didn’t mean to aim that at you directly, but I did intend it for that bogus quote. It pops up constantly and is totally not credible.
What evidence is there that the statements are not credible? Comparable statements were reported by different people about two different meetings with Lincoln, one before Fort Sumter and one after.
Consider the evidence in the import business in New York City as an indicator that federal revenue from tariffs was rapidly decreasing. Lincoln realized this was coming. Give him credit for that.
New York City import businesses, were closing in somewhat of a panic because of the Morrill Tariff (and the war). They wouldn't do that if they thought imports would continue to come in. Fewer imports meant less income for an already cash-strapped federal government. On an inflation adjusted basis imports to the North never regained their levels in 1860 dollars during the entire war even though the tariff rates kept increasing during the war because not enough money was coming in.
Here are reports about New York City port businesses:
From the New York Herald of March 2, 1861: There has been a great deal of flurry in business circles in this city for a few days past, sending off goods to the South purchased before the 1st of March, on which day the new tariff takes effect. The Congress of the Confederated States have adopted a tariff similar to the United States, imposing the same duties on goods coming from the Northern States as we now pay on those imported from Europe. South Carolina wanted to establish free trade, but she could not have her way in that respect; so that in the future the products and manufactures of the North will have to enter the Southern market subject to the same impost as foreign goods. The new tariff adopted by the Congress at Washington [rb note: the Morrill tariff], if it should become law – which it will unless Mr. Buchanan keeps it in his breeches pocket – will surround our commerce with Europe with so many obstructions and difficulties that in conjunction with the disadvantages of the Southern tariff, New York will receive a blow more severe than any it has experienced within fifty years.
The effect of these two tariffs, then, upon our trade with the best, and most reliable part of the country will most disastrously be felt in all the Northern cities. We learn that even now some of the largest houses in the Southern trade in this city, who have not already failed, are preparing to wind up their affairs and abandon business entirely. The result of this as regards the value of property, rents, and real estate, can be readily seen. Within two months from this time it will probably be depreciated from twenty to forty percent.From the New Orleans Daily Crescent newspaper of May 15, 1861 quoting the New York Day Book newspaper: All New York is failing. The suspensions and failures of the past few days have been fearful, and the war promises to bankrupt every merchant in New York. The retail business is as bad off as the wholesale. Nobody is purchasing anything, and trade is killed.
The following is a comparative statement of the imports of foreign dry goods at the port of New York for the week ending April 27:
For the week.........................1860 ............1861
Entered at the port,.......$1,503,483......$393,061
Thrown on the market, $1,650,790. ....$396,992
The imports of dry goods are very small this week, probably the least reported for many years.
Well may Mr. Lincoln ask, "What will become of my revenue?"
They also quote the Day Book as saying:
[There] "have been over 200 failures in New York since the 22d April, and within the last month not less than 300. Real estate has no sale at any price and rents are comparatively normal. Total bankruptcy stares all in the face, and starvation will become a daily visitor to the abode of the poor."From Appleton's Cyclopaedia: Business failures in port cities by year:
Year----NYC--Philly---Boston--Baltimore---New Orleans--Charleston
1857----915----280-------258--------58-------------58------------31
1858----406----109-------128--------76-------------45------------20
1859----299----105-------122--------50-------------27------------16
1860----528----144-------172--------82-------------24------------25
1861----990----380-------480-------121-------------33------------11
[me] Worse than the Panic of 1857 for cities to which the Morrill Tariff was applied.
rockrr, the reference to Lincoln's revenue statement was in the paper. The only change was that I put it in red bold to highlight it for you.